Northwestern’s future is on the roster already

Posted by Philip Rossman-Reich on Tuesday, March 19, 2013 · 26 Comments

NCAA Basketball: Delaware State at Northwestern

Northwestern is expected to release four-star point Jaren Sina from his Letter of Intent today as he requested, re-opening his recruiting after Bill Carmody had secured his commitment back in July and signed him in November. Sina was considered perhaps the best recruit that Carmody had ever brought in and many pegged him as the future of the program.

Obviously now, with no coach and a star player re-opening his recruitment (with Northwestern’s blessing and Sina’s father told Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune that he would continue to consider Northwestern and he was thankful that they let his son re-open his recruiting) there is very little that is certain about Northwestern’s basketball future.

Except, that is, the players currently on the roster.

Whoever Northwestern’s new coach is will have to quickly move to gain the faith of NU’s two incoming recruits — both seemingly on the fence now although only Sina has requested and received the release from his LOI — and build belief from Drew Crawford to come back and play after he has already graduated. What the 2014 basketball team will look like is a complete mystery right now.

What we do know is that JerShon Cobb, Alex Olah, Dave Sobolewski (I think) will be on the roster and will be relied on to play a key role in the transition from Bill Carmody’s Princeton Offense to . . . whatever comes next with the new coach.

It will take a while for the new coach to bring in the players that fit his system and there will be growing pains as the team and program makes transition. The new coach will have to hit the ground running recruiting to restock the program and make the transition easier. What could help more though is players already on the roster stepping up and adjusting. The new coach will have to hit the ground running on developing the players on the roster as well.

When all was said and done at the end of the year, Northwestern was a young team. Jared Swopshire and Drew Crawford were injured and Alex Marcotullio and Reggie Hearn were the only seniors on the roster. In that starting lineup on the final day were sophomore guard Dave Sobolewski, freshman forward Kale Abrahamson and freshman center Alex Olah. Along with rising junior JerShon Cobb (who may get an extra year of eligibility), this young nucleus is going to be be the building blocks for the new coach.

If there was one area that Bill Carmody struggled immensely it was developing talent. If a player was not a contributor his freshman year, it was unlikely he was going to contribute the rest of his career. That was the unfortunate part of Carmody’s tenure and why the team struggled to build depth.

With a new coach coming in, he will have to build confidence in the returning players and put them in roles to succeed.

That will go double for freshmen like Alex Olah and Mike Turner. Both had their ups and downs in their freshmen seasons, providing plenty of frustration. Also, undoubtedly, the center position is the one area that has held Northwestern back as much as any other. If Northwestern is going to have any kind of success under a new coach, it will come because the new coach is able to get more out of these two still young big men.

There are signs that a coach can do that.

Alex Olah started just about every game this season and had a mixed bag season, averaging 6.1 points per game and 4.1 rebounds per game while shooting 41 percent from the floor. It was frustrating watching him play at times as it seemed his confidence would go up and down. Consistency did not seem part of his game. That is OK as a freshman . . . but probably not OK when you are relying on that freshman to be your team’s starting center.

However, Olah showed improvement in the last few games of the season on the offensive end. He closed the year out with a 10-point game against Michigan State and a 12-point game against Iowa. The bigger thing was the improvement in his rebounding. He grabbed at least five rebounds in three of the final four games of the season.

Modest improvement for sure, but improvement nonetheless. Confidence will have to build off those two games for Olah.

Similarly, Turner will have to latch onto his positive moments and try to build off them this offseason. And when the new coach arrives, he will have to build their confidence up too and put them in positions to succeed. A poor year next year may make it difficult for them to bounce back.

There is a lot of work ahead. The biggest task for Northwestern after finding the new coach might not simply be hitting the ground running with recruiting. The Cats’ new coach also has to rebuild the confidence of several young player on the roster now that will play a key role in the early part of his tenure and set the foundation for the building ahead.

Category: Hoops, hoops recruiting 2013 · Tags: Alex Olah, Bill Carmody, Mike Turner

Fave

So
Fave

So, your banking on freshman’s who played this year to be solid contributors next season. 1. Princeton offense hid weaknesses of all player’s who played last year.
2. Losing possibly, Crawford,Sina,Hearn(graduation),Swop(graduation) will not help Northwesterns plight to get to tourney.
3. Sobo,will struggle in big ten even more. He will have to handle more on ball pressure. He will not get his shot off as easily and was not great even in the princeton offense to do that either.Demps, not very good with decision making. Olah, too slow to defend and not athletic to get his shot off in post. Abrahamson, to slow and fragile to break through off of pressure and create.

So, my question is who will be able to perform consistently at a high level for this team next year?
- kinsella316
  
  Great questions, but look towards more than next year.
- http://www.facebook.com/prossmanreich Philip Rossman-Reich
  
  It is really hard to answer those questions right now without a coach. But they are certainly ones we should ask. I would expect next year to be a bit of a struggle as the team transitions. Things would have to really click next year for this team to make the Tournament, in my opinion.
- birdofpreydavide
  
  Abrahamson will get better and stronger, and I believe by the time he’s an upperclassman he will be a legitimate threat.
  
  Sobo needs to work on his shot, pure and simple. I bet he does, and I bet he becomes a great shooter (40 3pt, 80 FT) by the time he’s a senior.
  - bd005
    
    If Sina opts to go elsewhere, that would be a big loss at the PG position.
Alex

You hit an important point–talent development under Carmody was often non-existent, and if you weren’t pretty good as a freshmen, you weren’t going to be good as a senior (some examples where that’s not the case exist–Nash being one, and guys like Juice and Shurna got better). It was especially so with the center position, which was typically the weakest when entering as freshmen. Mirk/Curl/Rowley didn’t turn out well in terms of development (Mirk was probably better as a freshman/sophomore than a junior/senior). I’m excited to see if something can be made of Olah. He has size that is unmatched by most Big 10 teams. He is really slow (on offense and defense), but maybe if he used his size and got some strength he could be good enough. I had zero confidence that Bill Carmody would turn him into anything, but who knows with a new coach. As for Turner, I don’t see it, but again maybe a new coach will do wonders. Turner was terrible the entire season, period. He doesn’t belong in the Big 10.
- Rebounding
  
  I agree about Turner. And really all we needed was consistent play from centers and we would have been in the tournament a few times. Who remembers XXX (insert a few b10 teams here) getting an offensive rebound or tip in at the end of the game that led to a heartbreaking loss that kept us out of the tournament? 13 years was enough for Carmody to figure out how to get us to rebound (even during free throws), and I hope the next coach teaches that. It will likely again be the difference next year between NIT and the real deal.
  - bd005
    
    That’s basically a diff. in talent – which is why we had seen the same heartbreaking losses time after time in FB due to the defense not being able to hold a lead.
    
    As for Turner, he has potential but needs to gain more experience against collegiate competition and needs to move to the 4.
- http://www.facebook.com/prossmanreich Philip Rossman-Reich
  
  Really Carmody said it best last year, I think. He needed a double double from his centers combined for the team to be successful. Northwestern could rarely dream of getting that this year.
- Chasmo
  
  Jitim Young has suggested that Olah go to a ‘big man’s camp” this summer and it is a terrific suggestion except for the question: Who pays?
  NU probably can’t foot the bill, it’s unlikely Olah’s family can do so, and the NCAA probably won’t allow a booster to get involved. So while going to a camp would be great for his development, it is probably a moot point.
  Olah has so far to go it’s hard to image him ever being an acceptable Big Ten center but his size give NU fans hope. Turner is a lost cause. He is one of many Cat recruits who were in over their heads in the Big Ten play but whom NU signed anyway because Carmody literally couldn’t find enough kids to fill out a roster.
- bd005
  
  Geeze – not this BOGUS premise again.
  
  It has everything to do w/ the talent-level of the individual player (and their willingness to work on and improve their game).
  
  Stars like Vukusic, Juice, Shurna and Crawford were all much better players as upperclassmen than they were as a frosh.
  
  The same applied to role players like Nash, Moore and Hachad.
  
  I mean, geeze, you don’t think Hearn improved?
  
  The players that didn’t improve either didn’t have the talent or the willingness to work hard at improving their game.
  
  Case in point Rowley; St. Mary’s coach has had THREE years to develop Rowley and nada. While Rowley had the size, he simply did not have the feet or hands to play BB at a high level.
  
  Even with playing time limited by his hip problem, Cobb was a better player down the stretch of the 2011-12 season than he was as a frosh.
  
  The same goes for Demps who was totally lost out there as frosh (before he RS’d) and who improved his game as this past season went on.
  - Bill
    
    Youre arguing a detail of the same point whether players develop under a coach or just develop because they get older or whether the players are just lousy to begin with so will never become anything. Was Luka lousy to begin with? Probably but there is no question that under the right coach he could have gotten better. rowley is a good example where it appears 2 coaches failed with him.There is probably a coach out there who could have made something of him, I hope you dont doubt that.
    
    Your premise is true as we have recruited lousy players and same is true for football, and we haven’t been good as a result (maybe thats changing for football now). Is Urban Meyer a good coach or does he just get the best players to play for him? Is Northwestern a good school or does it just bring in smart students?
    - bd005
      
      I doubt any coach could have made anything of Rowley – he had slow feet and wooden hands (coaching would not solve those issues).
      
      As for Luka, while he was limited athletically, he also didn’t have a passion for the game or the drive to improve his game.
      
      Look at what happened with UK BB this season despite a roster full of 5* recruits – based on what Calipari stated, he was disgusted with the work ethic of some of his players and Calipari is known to be a master motivator.
      
      So a combination of players who didn’t have their head in the game and being overrated as recruits doomed UK to disappointing season.
Cletown Joe

Insider info on the quest for Collins. A Northbrooker with ties to the family has said that NU is going hard to get him and while he showed interest, he is not convinced the commitment to winning is there from the administration. Not that he has taken himself out of the running (as of yesterday) but sounds like Phillips is going to have to give him a few more recruiting tools to get him to come.
- Chasmo
  
  Let’s hope Collins does take himself out of the running because he has no experience whatsoever in building a program and would be a risky hire.
  A NU fan website writer suggested that NU pursue the other Duke assistant, Jeff Capel, who was a successful head coach at VCU and then at Oklahoma before getting fired and returning to Durham.
  Some NU fans reject Capel out of hand because there was a scandal at OU on his watch even though he was never implicated. Their wariness is understandable but NU fans should remember that the great Gary Barnett had a major gambling scandal at NU the year before he took the Purple to Pasadena and Randy Walker, the year after winning a Big Ten title, had a player die during an off-season practice that violated NCAA rules. Neither coach was directly blamed and few NU fans criticize those two coaches.
  Capel, being a former Duke point guard, might appeal to point guard Jared Sina to boot.
  - cece
    
    the player who died was taking a substance that was 1) problematic and 2) conflicted with his medical condition (asthma) and medications. that’s why he died.
    - Mark
      
      He died because of inadequate medical care on site. I wish people would stop blaming him instead of saying that when NU has a practice its NU’s responsibility to take care of business. It’s also problematic if parents read these excuses and think “No way I’d let my kid go put her/his life on the line at a school where the fan base will blame my kid for the university’s lack of care.”
      - Smolmania
        
        Have you seen the video, the ENTIRE video, of what went on that day? I have. There are 50 years olds working harder at Bulldog Bootcamp in Lincoln Park every morning (been there, done that) than the football players on that ill-fated day. R. Wheeler’s tragic demise was due to the combination of his asthma and the Agent Orange supplement he was taking, notwithstanding the gutless decision by NU’s lawyers not to take the case to trial. The University could not have its medical personnel on site that morning — that would have been a violation of the NCAA’s rules because it was not a team-sanctioned practice.
      - Mark
        
        There were NU football conditioning staff and NU trainers on site, although it wasn’t a “practice” as defined under NCAA rules as there are numerical limitations on those. That is why strength and conditioning coaches have much more contact with the players than the position coaches or even the head coach and why many prefer strength and conditioning. (See Ken Mannie’s video on You Tube re this; the MSU Strength and Conditioning Coach).
        
        They did not respond quickly enough and there was delay because of inadequate directions to the ambulance. While in your world the NU lawyers were gutless, most settlement decisions are based on the fact that there is exposure to liability – you might win and you might lose at trial. If you don’t win on a Motion to Dismiss/Summary Judgment/Judgment on the Pleadings you will go to trial. But in a death case your exposure in terms of dollar amounts is huge – so people settle. It’s often a business decision – settle for your insurance amount + or – and move on. Or go to trial and risk losing much more than your insurance coverage. I doubt that NU’s lawyers are a bunch of rookies on this matter and thus made a decision on the merits, not because they were gutless.
        
        And no, I don’t believe that summer conditioning in the Big Ten is easier than the Bulldog Bootcamp.
      - Smolmania
        
        You clearly haven’t seen the entire video (the “drill” during which Rashidi “fell out” was neither vigorous nor more difficult than multiple sessions undergone by non-athletes on a daily basis at Bootcamp — no one made any assertions or statements about summer conditioning, but that’s not what this was about), or heard the dropped 911 calls that were made — I guess that was RW’s fault too. I guess it’s time for another Telander hatchet job on Randy.
        The decisions to resolve the case were made, as in many (most?) of the cases I was involved in regarding Northwestern, because they didn’t want the potential negative (Telanderesque) publicity, notwithstanding the merits of the plaintiffs’ case.
      - Mark
        
        I’m not blaming Walker or anyone – just saying there was a miscalculation by NU on the possible risks at conditioning sessions and lack of a plan as to how assistance would be obtained quickly. Other schools made similar miscalculations – some with no consequences and others with disastrous consequences. So you’re saying that you were involved in the case?
  - JM
    
    I’m completely sold on Collins yet, but whoever they hire better be “risky,” because playing it safe when you have never been to the NCAAs makes no sense at all. On paper, I like the idea of a guy like Dave Paulsen, because his teams play great defense. Wisconsin and Bo Ryan have proved that great defense is the surest way to overcome a talent gap that is always going to exist at NU to some extent. Carmody’s teams were always soft.
- RealityCheck
  
  Chris Collins just faxed Jon Scheyer’s nameless high school transcript to JP.
  He also sent his.
- bd005
  
  If Collins is Phillips’ no.1 target, then it’s a bad move on top of a bad move.
  
  A no for Collins or Capel.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004095851781 Bob Parkman

It’s hard to know about player development, but some just don’t pan out, particularly if you’ve got a reduced pool from which to recruit. I do think that the number of injuries over a series of years indicates a problem with player conditioning.

2013 NU Football Schedule

Date	Opponent	Result
08/31/2013	at California - TBA TBA	-
09/07/2013	Syracuse - BTN 5:00PM	-
09/14/2013	Western Michigan - BTN 8:00PM	-
09/21/2013	Maine (FCS) - TBA TBA	-
10/05/2013	Ohio State - ABC/ESPN OR ESPN2 7:00PM	-
10/12/2013	at Wisconsin - TBA TBA	-
10/19/2013	Minnesota - TBA TBA	-
10/26/2013	at Iowa - TBA TBA	-
11/02/2013	at Nebraska - TBA TBA	-
11/16/2013	Michigan - TBA TBA	-
11/23/2013	Michigan State - TBA TBA	-
11/30/2013	at Illinois - TBA TBA	-

2012 NU Football Schedule

Date	Opponent	Result
09/01/2012	at Syracuse - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	42 - 41
09/08/2012	Vanderbilt - BTN 7:00PM - Highlights	23 - 13
09/15/2012	Boston College - BTN 2:30PM - Highlights	22 - 13
09/22/2012	South Dakota (FCS) - BTN 2:30PM - Highlights	38 - 7
09/29/2012	Indiana - BTN 11:00AM - Highlights	44 - 29
10/06/2012	at Penn State - ESPN 11:00AM	28 - 39
10/13/2012	at Minnesota - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	21 - 13
10/20/2012	Nebraska - ABC 2:30PM	28 - 29
10/27/2012	Iowa - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	28 - 17
11/10/2012	at Michigan - ESPN 11:00AM	31 - 38
11/17/2012	at Michigan State - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	23 - 20
11/24/2012	Illinois - BTN 11:00AM - Highlights	50 - 14
01/01/2013	Mississippi State - ESPN2 Gator Bowl 11:00AM - Highlights	34 - 20

Northwestern’s future is on the roster already

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