Man down: Swopshire, Olah injured as Wildcats fade

Posted by Philip Rossman-Reich on Saturday, February 9, 2013 · 20 Comments

Northwestern has seen its fair share of injuries. JerShon Cobb (suspension), Drew Crawford (torn labrum), Reggie Hearn (sprained ankle), Sanjay Lumpkin (mononucleosis) and Nikola Cerina (sprained ankle) have all missed time for the Wildcats this year. Just about all of those players were expected to make major contributions this year.

Injuries are not an excuse. But they do not help much.

Northwestern had made its adjustments against Iowa. The first half was close and there was little space between the Wildcats and Hawkeyes. Alex Olah was able to tip out offensive rebounds and extend possessions as was Jared Swopshire. The Wildcats were not hitting 3-pointers, but played strong enough defense to make that not matter.

It seemed despite Iowa’s strong defense to keep Northwestern from getting many quality shots, NU was still in the game with a good chance to win it with some adjustments. Not saying the Wildcats would.

But the task got harder when Jared Swopshire went out with a knee injury — he spent most of the second half with an ice pack wrapped around his right knee. The task was made harder even still with Alex Olah out of the game after an inadvertent elbow to the head. Northwestern could only fight so much before Iowa eventually pulled away.

The Hawkeyes spent the second half slowly pushing their lead out and the Wildcats could not recover without these two key players in their lineup. This game perhaps could have been closer than the 71-55 margin for Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

	Score	Off. Rtg.	eFG%	O.Reb.%	TO%	FTR
Northwestern	55	90.6	39.3	33.3	15.1	23.2
Iowa	71	109.8	52.0	28.0	16.7	44.0

Above are statistics known as the Four Factors and are regarded as indicative contributors to wins and losses. Please see the end of this post for an explanation.

Perhaps with some of the air taken out of the building for the Wildcats, the Hawkeyes just picked apart the Wildcats’ defense with some pinpoint passing and hot shooting. Roy Devyn Marble got the game going with a dunk off of a turnover on his way to a 21-point effort, snapping out of his own cold snap. Melsah Basabe had eight points as Iowa put forward an extremely balanced effort.

The Wildcats kept the game as close as they could, but the Hawkeyes defense once again disrupted their offense. Northwestern shot only 33.9 percent from the floor. They made only 1 of 10 3-pointers in the first half and 6 for 25 for the game. NU was great on the offensive glass with 12 offensive rebounds, but could not finish the possessions as the team tried to control pace. It worked for only so long.

Eventually, Northwestern succumbed to turnovers with 11 for the game, including five from Reggie Hearn. Hearn still had 13 points and six rebounds, trying to carry the team without two starters.

Alex Olah had six points and four rebounds — all offensive — before leaving the game after playing only 10 minutes. Jared Swopshire scored eight points and grabbed seven rebounds in 26 minutes before he had to leave. Dave Sobolewski struggled in shooting 2 for 12 from the floor.

There were a lot of players who had to carry the load and could not. Give the Hawkeyes’ pressure defense the credit in smelling the blood with Olah and Swopshire out and attacking. They pressured and prodded, taking advantage of the physical play allowed on both ends. The Wildcats played well under the circumstances, they just could not execute or finish.

Eventually, Iowa was able to do those things in breaking NU down and converting off of turnovers.

Offensive Rating measures points scored per 100 possessions.
Effective field goal percentage measures field goal percentage taking into account the added value of a 3-point shot.
Offensive rebound percentage measures the percentage of offensive rebounds over total rebounds.
Turnover percentage estimates what percentage of a team’s possessions end in a turnover.
Free throw rate measures the rate of free throw attempts over field goal attempts.

Category: Hoops, Uncategorized · Tags: Alex Olah, Iowa Hawkeyes, Jared Swopshire

Db

I don’t think what they are doing with turner is fair to him or the team. He is not ready to play at this level on either end of the court.

I didn’t understand it when they recruited him, but after watching him early this year you could tell he committed himself over the summer, got bigger and is a serious athlete. He’ll give them real minutes down the road.

But right now he is terrified on offense. He can’t get the ball out of his hands fast enough which means he misses cuts or throws them at the wrong time. He doesnt cut or roll to the basket. He won’t shoot and he doesn’t attack the offensive glass.

On defense he is a step late on rotations which is why he has 4 or 5 fouls every game. And because he now is so foul conscious his style is to stand completely rigid/still straight up and down even after the shot is up, which means he is irrelevant on the glass too. It’s painful to watch.

His line today was 25mins, 1 point, 1 board (grabbing his own shot that was blocked) and 4 fouls. That is who he is right now. That is also not his fault. He should not be on the court for these kind of mins. I know olah was hurt but he plays a lot every game. Just don’t think it’s fair to anyone right now.

By the way, shon morris, if Iowa spent any time worried about turner’s foul situation it would be time wasted. His WAR if there was a thing in hoops could be replaced by ajou on one leg. I cant even imagine what his +- is. I still don’t get why cerina doesn’t play.

Also shon Morris, when you duck your shoulder into a guy half your size while you are moving, it’s an illegal pick. I’ve gotten to mute stage when Morris does games. Watching him defending his live call of that pick after watching the replay was Phil Simms esque
- Chasmo
  
  Watching today’s game showed how fortunate Iowa is to have a good recruiter as its had coach and how doomed NU is to have a poor recruiter as coach.
  NU has dominated Iowa in recent years but the arrival of McCafferty at Iowa on the upswing while the 13th year of Carmody means more of the same.
  Can any NU fans not see that Turner does not have he ability to play in the Big Ten? Even Carmody said he did not think the kid could play in the Big Ten when he saw him play in high school but was talked into offering him a scholarship. This is a testament to how poor Northwestern recruiting has been under Mr. Bill that we offered him a scholarship anyway.
  Northwestern recruiting was so poor under Carmody that a few years back NU signed a number of European players (such as Melchior) who were not able to play Big Ten basketball. Now we have Turner.
  
  Carmody has no chance to turn NU into a NCAA tournament quality team because he has no turn-around experience. He came from a dominant Ivy League Princeton program which he inherited from Pete Carrill. He did not build Princeton from a loser to a winner. When he arrived Princeton, it was winning and when he left he was a winner thanks to Carill’s recruits.
  When he arrived at NU, he hired as his assistants two ex-Princeton players who had no recruiting experience because they had both worked in the business world before becoming coaches (Robinson and Henderson) and third assistant from one of the worst programs in the Ivy League (Paul Lee of Columbia). That showed he had no idea how important recruiting was to NU’s fortunes.
  While the addition of Hardy and Hill have improved things, it’s clear the head man still has no ability to recruit a roster filled with Big Ten quality players.
  The difference between the ability of the Iowa frosh and the NU frosh in this game was the difference in the game. McCafferty can recruit and Carmody can’t.
  If NU doesn’t dump Carmody when his contract runs out, it will never make the NCAA tournament.
  - bd005
    
    Uhm, Iowa’s top recruits/frosh (Woodbury and Gesell) – had a whopping combined EIGHT points.
    
    Woodbury, a 4 star center recruit, is averaging 5.2 pts per game for Iowa; Olah is averaging 6.1 pts per game.
    
    The player for Iowa who caused most of the damage was Marble, a JR.
    
    As for Turner, he enough athleticism to play in the B1G; he’s just needs to gain some more experience and is playing out of position.
- http://www.facebook.com/prossmanreich Philip Rossman-Reich
  
  The unfortunate part with Turner is that he has had a redshirt year to get used to the college game and Northwestern is in the unfortunate position of having to play him with no one else on the roster. Carmody probably needs to push aside his misgivings and play Nikola Cerina more, even if he makes mistakes. Especially if Olah is out.
- Phred phrom Philly
  
  Turner’s 3 was straight on, but unfortunately, and inch short. If he had made that 3, that would have been huge. Yes, he needs to work on his confidence on the offensive end, but he probably has been given the redlight to do much offensively. What’s to lose? Why not give Turner the greenlight and let him show what he can do?
Felis Silvestris

If Swopshire is gone for any extended period of time our NIT hopes this year will be gone. Despite the plethera of injuries this year the Cats for the most part have been a very entertaining team which has exhibited terrific energy. Sadly, at the end of the year we’ll say, “woulda, coulda, shoulda” if Cobb, Crawford, Hearn, Lumpkin, Cerina, Swopshire, Olah and Derrick Rose hadn’t missed extended time on the floor.
- Just the Facts
  
  I like NU’s chances for the Big Dance if they have a healthy Derrick Rose. :)
  - Smolmania
    
    Does his time with the Bulls mean that his three years of eligibility can’t be used??
Alum Dad

The lack of comments on this site reflect the level of interest in this team and their roller-coaster season. It is clear that this team is going nowhere. Even if they luck into an NIT bid, who cares? The basketball program, as it stands right now is a shambles. Carmody can’t recruit and we spend year after year in neutral with no forward movement. When we do get a decent player (Coble), Carmody screws that up as well. When you compare Wildcat basketball to the rest of the Big 10 we have the worst facility, no winning tradition and the least talent. Why would any good high school player want to play for this program? We need some upgrades to Welsh-Ryan and a new young coach who isn’t afraid to work hard to turn things around. As long as we stick with the status quo that is what we will get. How can NU justify keeping Carmody after all this time? NU lost to UIC, at home this season. This is the same UIC team that lost to Detroit by 50 points! How can we feel we belong in the Big 10 when we can’t beat UIC?
- VACat
  
  I agree with Alum Dad.
  
  The administration is doing absolutely ZERO to turn this situation around. Football gets all the money and attention. Which I understand…and it’s paying dividends.
  
  But let’s face it. We don’t have good enough players. The coach can’t recruit. And our facility is not reflective of a Top 10 university with a huge endowment and a bevy of wealthy alumni to help.
  
  Sorry Dr. Phillips – I lay this at your doorstep. The least you could do is lay out a vision where we want to get to. I can accept building up the athletic department in stages. What I can’t accept is the loud silence and lack of engagement with your fans and alumni base to make this a better program.
  
  Besides football, basketball ought to be #2 and get a whole helluva lot more attention.
  
  You reap what you sow.
  
  No one cares about this program right now. There’s just no excitement and it’s going nowhere fast.
  
  I wish the media or alumni could find a way to put more constructive “heat” on the administration.
- http://twitter.com/LakeThePosts Lake The Posts
  
  If you use web traffic and comments on LTP as any type of gauge for NU hoops engagement then I’d agree with you that the fans are making a statement with their indifference. Each passing year the contrast between the two programs becomes that much more striking.
- PurpleBadger
  
  If you don’t care, as you have posted before, why even bother with this site? Seriously.
  - alumdad
    
    If I have previously stated that I don’t care it was clearly out of frustration. I want the NU basketball program to improve. Why accept mediocrity? Why does Bill Carmody get a 13 year mulligan?
- bd005
  
  How is the BB program in “shambles”, but for all the injuries (and Cobb’s suspension) this season?
  
  We would have kissed a 10 win FB season (and a bowl win) goodbye if the gridiron ‘Cats experienced similar nos. of injuries (esp. at key positions).
  
  Remember how the FB team fell apart when ONE player, Persa, went down a few years ago?
  
  With the full roster of players, this team would be in the hunt for the NCAAs.
  
  Even with all the injuries, etc. – this team has wins over Baylor, UI and Minny.
Nate

This year’s group tries so hard with limited depth but in the end it’s just not enough. The lack of a go-to scorer really shows itself during the trying parts of the game when the offense looks utterly lost. I wish more people cared about the state of NU hoops like I and others do. I really hope that the administration and athletic dept. has the same commitment level to the bball program as it does the fball team. I’m so tired of being good enough to compete, because it yields nothing more than a NIT bid. If the fball team can recruit talented enough players to be ranked in the top 20 at season’s end, why can’t bball do it? I’ve been told that it’s easier to get good fast in bball than fball, but I don’t see it at NU. I’m frustrated, because deep down, I know the bball program can be better than this, even with Cobb and Crawford coming back next year. Anyone else out there feel the same?
PurpleHayes

Thirty years ago, when both programs were down the drain, the prevailing “wisdom” (which I shared) was that it would be easier to resurrect basketball, because “it only takes 4-5 good players, not 30-40″. Well, that didn’t happen, but I still think a bit of historical perspective is important. The program under Carmody is in so much better shape than any predecessor in my lifetime, it’s not even close. I don’t argue that means Bill gets lifetime employment, but I do think it’s worth pointing out those of you who seem to think recruiting Big Ten talent to NU is an easy thing, and obviously Carmody “just doesn’t get it”, are way out of line. Horrible history, dreadful facilities, and a rain cloud that seems to pour down on what little good fortune we almost seem to generate–these will face the next coach as much as they challenge Bill. He has brought us the likes of Kyle Rowley (and maybe Mike Turner and even Kale Abrahamson will unfortunately follow), but he has also recruited Shurna, Thompson, Crawford, and yes even Kevin Coble. Not enough, to be sure, because we should get an NCAA bid now and then, but Carmody is no moron–and we have had morons in that seat (see O’Neill, Kevin). For my money, I think next year is Carmody’s last if they don’t break through, injuries or not. Dismissing him next year would make sense, and would also give the appearance to coaching recruits that we have a conscience and reasonable expectations. That’s another assumption everyone seems to make, that young coaches will be dying to get into Evanston. Good luck with that–but for a history of playing pickup games with Henry Bienen, Northwestern would not even have gotten a coach of Carmody’s stature. For my money, the on-the-floor coaching is probably better this year than most, given the drain on the talent. This is not the year to fire him. Remember, we like to think this is an attractive coaching opportunity–the market will strongly feel otherwise. I give Bill next year–he deserves it–and if we are still frustrated, we part company then and have a reasonable offering to the next coach.
- PurpleBadger
  
  PH–I feel your comments are right on the money. Anyone who dismisses the impact of injuries to key players does not get it. Sure, stacked teams like Indiana & Michigan could withstand losing major players, but most would have a real hard time of it. If Minnesota lost Mbakwe, Wisconsin lost Berggren, Michigan State lost Appling, etc., it would be a huge change for the worse for them. For some posters, it’s like that shouldn’t be a factor now that we’ve talked about at the start of the season (we used THAT excuse in December!!). Fact remains, the guts of our team is gone, yet we still play tough & win some we games we should not have. I say let Bill coach through next season & see where we are…
- Felis Silvestris
  
  Agree 99% with PurpleHayes. It seems like every time the Cats lose a basketball game the “Fire Carmody” crowd comes out of the woodwork. As PH says above, historical perspective is many times sorely lacking. In the 16 seasons prior to Carmody, under four different coaches, NU had a 36-246 (12.8 %) record in the Big Ten. Carmody’s conference record with the Cats is 70-143 (32.9 %). He has had this relative success despite the fact that our basketball facilities are outdated now more than ever. The NU basketball coaching job is NOT considered an attractive job. Coach K once recommended to Tommy Amaker to NOT take the Cats job. Everyone says that Carmody can’t recruit. The quality of athletes of recent teams is certainly a cut or two above prior regimes. The above mentioned Kevin O’Neill came to Evanston with the reputation of being an outstanding recruiter. Thirty years ago a friend of mine who was a major college recruiter at the time told me that NU would have success in football well before basketball. I told him that he was crazy given the fact it only takes two to three stud players to turn around a basketball team whereas in football it takes many more. He told me that it was going to be far, far harder to get those two to three players to have interest in going to NU, and then accepted into the school. IF a coach like Brad Stevens wanted to coach here then hire him. I guarantee you that he and other young “coaches on the rise” have NO interest in coming here. I’ve watched Cats basketball for about 35 years and Carmody’s teams have been far and away better and more entertaining than 90% of the prior teams I’ve seen.
- http://profiles.google.com/haberstr John Haberstroh
  
  Don’t disagree but I’m not sure it really matters one way or another. As you say, the job is not attractive to top-line coaches; the facilities and, frankly, fan support are abysmal by Big Ten and or even strong mid-major standards. That’s what needs to change, and then we can go out and get one of those rising mid-major coaches who recruits Big Ten quality players. Nonetheless, when all is said and done, Carmody is an Xs and Os gifted coach who exploits limited talent brilliantly. He seems flawed in the human relations with young men department, and is a flawed judge of talent and a weak recruiter, but those last two don’t matter cuz no one recruits into that facility, half-filled with our fans. PTB, get something going for our hoops team!
NUdone88

Give Bill C one more year. But show a plan to raze WRA so future recruits and a new coach can envision the future. It is just so sad. Players are trying but it’s not enough to get over the steep hill.

2013 NU Football Schedule

Date	Opponent	Result
08/31/2013	at California - TBA TBA	-
09/07/2013	Syracuse - BTN 5:00PM	-
09/14/2013	Western Michigan - BTN 8:00PM	-
09/21/2013	Maine (FCS) - TBA TBA	-
10/05/2013	Ohio State - ABC/ESPN OR ESPN2 7:00PM	-
10/12/2013	at Wisconsin - TBA TBA	-
10/19/2013	Minnesota - TBA TBA	-
10/26/2013	at Iowa - TBA TBA	-
11/02/2013	at Nebraska - TBA TBA	-
11/16/2013	Michigan - TBA TBA	-
11/23/2013	Michigan State - TBA TBA	-
11/30/2013	at Illinois - TBA TBA	-

2012 NU Football Schedule

Date	Opponent	Result
09/01/2012	at Syracuse - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	42 - 41
09/08/2012	Vanderbilt - BTN 7:00PM - Highlights	23 - 13
09/15/2012	Boston College - BTN 2:30PM - Highlights	22 - 13
09/22/2012	South Dakota (FCS) - BTN 2:30PM - Highlights	38 - 7
09/29/2012	Indiana - BTN 11:00AM - Highlights	44 - 29
10/06/2012	at Penn State - ESPN 11:00AM	28 - 39
10/13/2012	at Minnesota - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	21 - 13
10/20/2012	Nebraska - ABC 2:30PM	28 - 29
10/27/2012	Iowa - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	28 - 17
11/10/2012	at Michigan - ESPN 11:00AM	31 - 38
11/17/2012	at Michigan State - ESPN2 11:00AM - Highlights	23 - 20
11/24/2012	Illinois - BTN 11:00AM - Highlights	50 - 14
01/01/2013	Mississippi State - ESPN2 Gator Bowl 11:00AM - Highlights	34 - 20

Man down: Swopshire, Olah injured as Wildcats fade

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