Redemption Saturday: Northwestern (7-3,3-3) @ Michigan State 5-5 (2-4)

Northwestern (7-3,3-2) vs Michigan State (5-5, 2-4)

GAMEDAY INFO
Date: November 17, 2012
Kickoff: 11:00 am ct
Location: Spartan Stadium (75,005) – East Lansing, MI
All-time Series: Michigan State 36-16  In East Lansing: Michigan State 18-6
Trends: ‘Cats looking to snap Sparty four game winning streak in series and win 3rd of last four in East Lansing (’05,’07)
Favored Team: Michigan State (-7.5)
TV: ESPN2 – PXP – Bob Wischusen, Color – Danny Kannell, SL Maria Taylor 
Radio: WGN 720 AM – PXP – Dave Eanet, Color – Ted Albrecht; Sirius Radio Channel 85, XM Radio 85; WNUR 89.3 FM (student station)
Twitter: @NU_SportsLIVE
Coaching Stats: NU – Pat Fitzgerald (7th year –47-39, 24-3o) vs Mark Dantonio (6th  year–49-27,29-17 )
Weather Forecast: 52 degrees, winds 6 mph, south -20% chance of rain

2-Minute Drill

If you’re a daily LTP reader you can probably recite chapter and verse how I’ll tee this one up. The ‘Cats are anxious to get back on the field and begin erasing the memory of the improbable way they lost a game that was all but over and would have catapulted them in to the Top 20 and set them up nicely for a run at the Capital One Bowl.  Instead, they find themselves in a match-up with the surprise downtroden team of the year – Michigan State – in a “woe is us” fan base mentality. The ‘Cats, legitimately a number of plays from at worst a 9-1 record must win this game to redeem themselves and gain some credibility and prove to themselves and the fans, they can finish a game. Meanwhile, it is senior day in East Lansing and a loss will ensure at best a tie for the lowest win total (7) of Mark Dantonio’s tenure in Spartyville. The Spartans have surprised me with their resolve, continuing to battle despite four B1G losses by a total of 10 points. The bye came at the perfect time for a Michigan State team that had an O-line that was a M*A*S*H unit. There are question marks about Kain Colter’s ankle and you get the sense the incredibly tough Venric Mark is really starting to wear and tear.

This game pits the two best RBs in the B1G this year (in my opinion Mark has been far more consistent than Montee Ball) and two stellar rush defenses that will be out to prove they can stop one another. Once again, it will likely come down to the shaky NU secondary trying to stop QB Andrew Maxwell from heating up with a WR corps that had the dropsies early in the year, but is coming on strong. The ‘Cats have a ton to play for as a rare 10-win season is very realistic should they “upset” Michigan State today.  No Spartan team has gone 0-4 in conference play at home in the Dantonio era, a fate that would occur today should they lose.

Headlines I’d Like To See On Sunday:

• “‘Cats Finally Finish, Put Spartans Away In Impressive Fashion”
• “Mark Wins RB Duel & Game As ‘Cats Punish Best B1G “D”
• “Trumpy Steps Up & Sets Up The ‘Cats For New Year’s Day Bowl”
• “‘Cats Secondary Shows Spartans It Can Play D Too, Propel NU To Romp”

WHEN NORTHWESTERN HAS THE BALL

I’m still not convinced Kain will be 100%. The good news, if he is, is you just need to look at the Nebraska game to see that this highly ranked (well deserved) Spartan D can get rolled by a dual threat QB.  I just have a sense we’ll be seeing more of Trevor Siemian in this game as he played his best game of the season in limited, but clutch time against Michigan, including a pair of NFL-level TD passes to Cameron Dickerson and Tony Jones. Make no mistake about it, my eyes, your eyes and Spartan Nation’s eyes will be on #5 in white.

Venric seems livid and ready to unleash his angry running style to once again prove the doubters wrong. You can hear the whispers “he won’t do that against THIS D” from Michigan State fans. Well, my money is on Venric. The last we saw him, he was hobbling off the field in OT after being dinged and nicked in that bloodbath of a game. This speedy D with a host of future NFL players has been dynamite, giving up just 288 ypg and only 16 ppg, yet, it usually isn’t enough based on the lack of offense. I’m really uncertain on what we’ll see moreso for health reasons, however I do believe we’ll see an uptick in Mike Trumpy touches as he has become one of the unsung heroes of this team. It’s no secret to beating Sparty – jump on them early – much like we did against Michigan and Iowa – and really establish the tempo of the game. Obviously with DE William Gholston, LB Max Bullough and DBs Johnny Adams and Isiaiah Lewis, easier said then done.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE HAS THE BALL 

Much like Pat Narduzzi, the DC for MSU, Mike Hankwitz will likely be trying the Spartans to become one dimensional by focusing a lot of energy on the front seven stuffing the B1G’s leading rusher, Le’Veon Bell, who averages 124 ypg and accounts for 35% of their total offense. The passing game was written off early in the season, but that’s a mistake. Maxwell’s completion percentage is only around 55%, (193/356, 2138 yds, 10 TD, 5 INTs)  but the Spartans do manage nearly 220 ypg in the air. The numbers don’t do the improvement justice though, as freshman playmaker Aaron Burridge has become a beast and guys like Bennie Fowler can make plays despite starting in the backfield. The Spartans OL seems to be healing up which you’ve got to believe is enough for Dantonio to say “OK, you want to try and stop us with the run, prove it”.  Spartan fans will tell you that this offense just lacks flow as they’ve been uneven all year long.

There is one guy, however, that has kept me up this week – TE Dion Sims.  The guy is Kyle Prater in size, but a much higher frequency target and will provide loads of matchup issues for us. The Spartans, moreso than any other program we face, has produced on the play action against us, regardless of the year, the QB, and the offensive personnel. I expect it again on Saturday after a healthy dose of Bell early.

Intangibles: Again, a big caveat here based on Venric’s health, but Mr. All Purpose Yardage has become automatic for 200-yard outbursts with either a punt return or kickoff return gamechanger. I’m still pissed at the blown call last week that inexcusably took away a 96-yard KOR TD by Mark. Venric will have his work cut out for him on returns – and hopefully of lot of chances based on the Sparty offense – MSU’s Mike Sadler is the conference’s most outstanding punter, averaging nearly 44 ypp. The Spartans usually lethal return game has been below average this year. Obviously, Jeff Budzien has been near perfect and overall helps give the ‘Cats a decided edge in special teams.

Lake The Posts Factor (0=so certain you can DVR and watch late night, 10=running to Ryan Field, ripping down FG posts and marching them in to Lake Michigan): 7.6

When you’re a program still in build mode, games in November when you’re out of the B1G race can still register high on the LTP Factor. We’ve got a chance to really finish the season on an upswing against a great defense and put an end to our nemesis’ four game winning streak. Despite back-to-back 11 win seasons by Michigan State, I feel that most fans feel Sparty is a middle of the pack program lumped in with Iowa and Northwestern in most years. A win today and it’s a double-whammy as we can ensure a really down year for Michigan State and with hapless Illinois on deck, put ourselves a heavy favorite to finish 9-3 and secure a New Year’s Day bowl game. Obviously, anything short of a bowl win this season and we’re back to major disappoinment-ville, but these next three games will go a long way towards program momentum for 2013 when we’ll once again, like 2011 and 2001 have – gulp – great expectations.

Pick To Click: Mike Trumpy

I feel as though it is a given you can’t pick Kain Colter or Venric Mark as part of this game, otherwise it wouldn’t be any fun. I’ve just got a feeling like I did for the BC game that Mike Trumpy is going to really have a huge game. The Spartans will be gearing up for Venric and Kain, but Trumpy has quietly been putting up gaudy ypc numbers, its just that he’s been getting less than a handful per game.

Head to Head Stat Pack – 2012 averages

Northwestern                                                   Michigan State

30.5………………….Scoring Per Game……………………19.7

23.9………………….Scoring Defense Per Game………………16.3

22.4……………………..First Downs Per Game………………….19.2

237.6………………….Rushing Yards Per Game…………….. 141.9

5.2……………………Average Per Rush………………3.9

25………………………………Rushing TDs………………11

164.4…………………. Passing Yards Per Game……………218.5

10…………………………. Passing Touchdowns………………………10

402.0…………………..Total Offense Per Game……………… 360.4

18.9……………………….Kick Return Average……………………19.1

19.1……………………….Punt Return Average……………………..7.7

7……………………………………Fumbles Lost………………………………. 6

3…………………………… Interceptions Thrown………………………. 6

+7…………………………….. Turnover Margin………………………….+2

6.1…………………………..Penalties Per Game……………………….6.1

59.2…………….Penalty Yards Per Game………………………59.7

 29:40……………………..Time of Possession……………….32:47

47%…………………..Third-Down Conversions………………39%

36%………………….Fourth-Down Conversions……………..67%

13-14……………………..Field Goal Attempts………………….17-24

37.9……………………….Net Punting Average……………………38.0

36-40 (90%)……………Red-Zone Scores……….29-33 (88%)

Stats to Stew On:

• Tracking Venric Mark – Mark is ascending the NU alltime lists in rapid fashion. Venric is #4 alltime in single season all purpose yards with 1,912. He is 289 yards away from breaking the record, held by Damien Anderson. He’s #10 in single season rushing yards with 1,181 and can move all the way up to 7th with with 111 yards today. He’s also 6th on the NU alltime career all-purpose yard list and will likely move in to 5th passing Ricky Edwards should he get 91 all-purpose yards today. His 118.1 ypg average is 14th in the FBS an 4th in the B1G. Venric now leads all B1G rushers with 7 100+ games this season.  Venric is tops in the B1G and still 6th in the country in all purpose yards per game with 191.7 ypg.
• The NU fifth year senior class has already set a record for most wins in five years with 37.
• NU is 22-4 since ’09 when they outrush opponents.
• The ‘Cats have scored in double figures in 70 consecutive games
• NU is 33-12 under Fitz when they score first.

SURVEY SAYS…

How Are You Feeling For Week 11?

Total Voters: 436

Predictions

LTP: Can the ‘Cats rushing attack work against the best defense (by far) in the conference? Will NU’s beleaguered secondary be able to keep Andrew Maxwell in check? This one has all the makings of a Venric Mark vs Le’Veon Bell/may the team with the higher rusher wins the game scorecard type of thing. It’s really a big game for both teams as the ‘Cats still have some really big things in their control, like a 10-win season which happens once every 40 years on average. Some late season momentum could really position NU well for 2013 and at the same time really hold down a recruiting rival of sorts on the brink of staying home for the holidays. MSU as you know holds teams to just 288 ypg of offense and 16 ppg. This game screams of first-to-20-wins. The “X factor” in this game might be the psychology of the jersey color. NU’s senior class, its winningest in history has never beaten Michigan State. That, combined with a potential 4th quarter lead could really play mind games with the ‘Cats. I’ve got a rare very good feeling about this one. Fitz’s teams perform better on the road in conference and I think the team has really got a chip on its shoulder. I’m here to channel that positive energy.

Northwestern 24 Michigan State 20

PRR: Northwestern has responded very well to its two other losses this year. The Wildcats have made adjustments and found ways to make things work. Against Minnesota, Northwestern recommitted itself to the ground game and rand down Minnesota’s throats for a win. Against Iowa, NU recommitted itself to Kain Colter as quarterback and again devoured Iowa’s rush defense. They were both nice wins and quelled our fears. What adjustment can we expect from Northwestern this week? I don’t think there will be much change. The Wildcats played well and executed against the Wolverines. They largely stopped the run last week and they have done so throughout most of the season. The question is whether Michigan State will be able to pass the ball with any effectiveness. The Spartans have not been able to do that all year, they might do better against the Cats’ pass defense but not good enough.

Northwestern 21, Michigan State 17

Other Games to Watch:

Syracuse (5-5) travels to Missouri at 6 p.m. CT on ESPNU. Last week Syracuse made Louisville fear the dome, ending Louisville’s unblemished record with a 45-26 win.

Vanderbilt (6-4) hosts Tennessee at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN2. Vanderbilt snuck past Mississippi last weekend 27-26 on Jordan Rodgers’ 27-yard pass to Chris Boyd with 52 seconds left.

Boston College (2-8) hosts Virginia Tech at 11:30 a.m. CT on ACC Network. Notre Dame strong-armed its way past Boston College last week with a 21-6 victory.

South Dakota (1-9) visits South Dakota State at 2 p.m. CT. Northern Iowa defeated South Dakota 24-21.

Looking Ahead to 2013

California (3-8) visits No. 16 Oregon State at 9:30 p.m. CT on Pac-12 Network. California met the Oregon juggernaut and lost 59-17 last week.

Western Michigan (4-7) hosts Eastern Michigan 1 p.m. CT. Western Michigan lost to Buffalo last week 29-24.

Maine (4-6) visits Rhode Island at 11 a.m. CT. Maine defeated Georgia State 51-7 last week.