Would Northwestern’s Story Play A Role On Selection Sunday?
By Philip Rossman-Reich on
Northwestern’s story is gaining a ton of attention as the Tournament dream gets closer and closer. Selection Sunday is going to be stressful for Northwestern. But could the Wildcats’ story be enough for that last little push if the Cats do their job on the court?
Close has not been good enough for Northwestern this year.
There have been close losses and close calls. Heartbreak and heartache.
Getting to the NCAA Tournament for the first time was not going to be easy. And as the Wildcats have inched closer, the pressure and attention has ramped up. Northwestern’s highlights are a feature on SportsCenter just about every morning. The national media seems to be eating up the story of Northwestern and hoping that it becomes a reality.
The “story” seems to be shared by both Northwestern and our opponents, regardless of the game outcome. Even after Ohio State defeated Northwestern, you could hear stories of Ohio State fans feeling genuinely sorry that their team had to do this to Northwestern, potentially ruining that elusive Tournament dream.
And to be this close has been so agonizingly painful. Northwestern’s last five games have had an average margin of 6.2 points per game including a 12-point loss in overtime. You could easily term each one of these games a “must-win” for Northwestern’s Tournament hopes. Easily.
They were all critically important as they represented either a chance to defeat an RPI Top 50 team (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State) or a necessary win over an RPI 100+ team (Penn State). And Minnesota has an RPI of 90, so throw them in to that group of “necessary” wins. We definitely are not even talking about the Tournament at this point without that win against Minnesota.
In these last few weeks, Northwestern has played to the brink of its limits, but can’t seem to close the deal, yet somehow has done just enough to keep hope alive.
That can be incredibly frustrating for a fan. That little sliver of hope exists. And this is may be where the story and the power and weight behind getting this team — this program — to the NCAA Tournament at long last may gain some serious traction.
The loss to Ohio State hurt Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament chances, but did not kill them. Not according to those who make a living of predicting the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats are still the last team in the Tournament according to Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com. The other “bracketologists” have Northwestern right on the border. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com has the Wildcats playing in the play-in game first round of the NCAA Tournament. Mike Huguenin of Yahoo! Sports has the Wildcats out of the field.
I think Rodger Sherman over at Sippin’ On Purple has it absolutely right, this thing is very very too close to call.
Northwestern has some work still to do. Step one is defeating Iowa. The next step is winning the first round game in the Big Ten Tournament and getting to the quarterfinals. The next step is, at the very very very least, having a good showing in that game. The Wildcats may have to win that game depending on what happens in the mid-major tournaments.
When you look at Northwestern’s resume, it does not seem that impressive. A 17-12 record, a sub-.500 conference record, eighth place in the Big Ten and a 55 RPI. Then you add in a 2-10 record against the RPI Top 50.
This looks like a bubble team that is going to get left out, to be honest. The only thing really keeping the team afloat is that all of Northwestern’s losses came to top 100 RPI teams. The Wildcats are 12-0 against RPI 100+ teams. There are no “bad losses” on the resume. Not that any loss is excusable (there were plenty of wins left on the board this season), but there are no crushing defeats either — thus why Iowa and Penn State road trips carried a lot of significance.
But, this is not an ordinary team. Northwestern does have the story attached to it. And that, honestly, might end up playing in Northwestern’s favor. That is at least what Lunardi seems to suggest in his latest analysis of his bracket.
“I think they’re in by a finger nail,” Lunardi told Scott Powers of ESPN Chicago by phone on Thursday. “I mean I could easily make a case to take them out and probably take more effort to keep them in. I just couldn’t with good conscience take them out with not enough teams winning under them in the out group.
“I couldn’t in good conscience torture them any further after that game. It may be an emotional decision more than anything else.”
The hope, if Northwestern is on the borderline for an NCAA, is that the story pulls on the heart strings of the committee and gets the team in. That may be a back-door way in or some sort of cop out of a reason to admit Northwestern (finally) into the Tournament. But it might also be the reality of the situation. Attention is on Northwestern for this reason and it would be hard for the Selection Committee to ignore the story.
Lunardi said he does not believe this story will mean much once the committee gets in the room. There have been plenty of teams trying a national push before. But maybe none like this.
We may not ever know what happens in that committee room. But maybe just being close enough will get the committee thinking and maybe just being close enough will be enough finally to get Northwestern in.
All that we know is that Northwestern has to defeat Iowa first. Without that, none of this matters.
I’ll say it again: The asterisk should be on the fact that NU has never gone, since in every one of the past four years several, maybe a dozen or more, worse teams have made it through automatic bids. We’d beat those teams. But rules are rules . . .
Ithacacat- where do you watch games in Ithaca? I’m here too…
seems ironic that we are still projected in even though we are going to be underdogs at iowa. are these projections not forward looking?
Yeah, I don’t think these bracket projections are meant to be projections, more snapshots in time. If the Tournament started tomorrow type of things.
Harvard a better story ?
This is not an “apples to apples” comparison as far as stats ( RPI, B1G vs Ivy, etc ) go. But, frankly, I think Harvard’s a better “story,” however you define it. Depending on what happens this weekend, Harvard may be tied with Penn for the regular season title and have to face them to determine the auto-bid for the dance. If they don’t win, what’s their chance of an at large bid ?
Having spent a few weeks in the top 25 this year, they have been gradually building a serious basketball tradition over the past few years from nowhere under the tutelage of Tommy Amaker. And Tommy, a Coach K. disciple, is a great coach. The first product of this program in the NBA is none other than Jeremy Lin.
Granted, “stories” are in the eyes of the beholder. And ESPN has its own motives for chosing stories. But, I think NU fans, because of being thrown around in the B1G for so long, have a distorted sense of the appeal of their story.
“has the Wildcats playing in the play-in game first round of the NCAA Tournament.”
Why did you cross out “play-in game” in your article? Is it because nobody on this planet thinks the play in game is the first round of the tournament but Northwestern people? Makes us sound desperate. It is called a play in game because you play it to get IN the NCAA tournament. The play-in games are not the first round of the tournament; they are more like the preliminary stages to find out which teams that barely made the tournament deserved to be there. The winners of these play-in games earn the right to do what all the better teams have already done—face a team in the “real” tournament.
Field of 64 not 68.
I am with you. I don’t consider those games in Dayton part of the Tournament proper. But “officially” those games constitute the first round. Crossing out play-in game was recognition that everyone still considers those games to be play-in games rather than part of the Tournament.
Agreed, I refuse to call the field of 64, ie the First Thursday, the “second round”. To me, it will always be the “first round”.
What about the opposite effect for Cincinnati? After their ugly brawl with Xavier, would committee members want to keep them out?
+1
That is an interesting point. The committee is going to say they don’t take any of this into consideration. But I have to believe they talk about it. These people on the committee are humans. It would be impossible for them not to leave emotion out of the conference room.
The brawl was certainly ugly. Uglier (and more troubling) for Cincinnati, though, are its weak non-conference schedule and bad losses in that non-conference schedule.
To me, Northwestern is clearly more deserving than Cincinnati — any team (except, apparently, Northwestern) can get lucky and upset a better team that is sleepwalking. It’s MUCH more impressive (to me, at least) to avoid bad losses — shows mental/physical consistency, which is hard to maintain at any level of sports.
I really don’t think Northwestern’s story (or Cincinnati’s for that matter) will be a factor in the selection process. The selection committee is going to pick whichever teams they think have played the best on the court this season. Any considerations outside of that are irrelevant and, frankly, unfair to other teams. Is there any evidence that ‘emotion’ has played a part in the selection process in the past?
No, but our case is historically unique…
True, but my point is if there is no evidence for emotion ever entering into the selection process, there’s no reason to think our situation will be any different. I realize that our historical futility makes it seem more important to fans for NU to get in, but the committee doesn’t care about NU. They’ll judge us like every other team, like they’re supposed to.
So …NU’s strongest play here is the “pity factor” …great ….
I am with you. Would be much better if we could just get ourselves in… but we are looking for any advantage we can get since we are right on the border. Let’s take care of business today…
Not much of an exaggeration to say that this is the biggest game in the history of the program. Tough to be playing on Senior Day against a rejuvenated Hawkeye team that would love to spoil our shot at the Dance, but we played so well against them at W-R that I still like our chances.
The key will be who is the third guy who steps up – my bet is Sobo today.
This is the worst possible opponent for a game of this magnitude. Iowa’s been a really tough out at home as Indiana and Wisconsin learned in the past few weeks.
If they get hot and get us into a shootout, our odds of walking out of there with a win are not that great. We have to be able to prevent them from getting hot. Defense is key in a game like this.
Go Cats!!!!!!!!!
Jim Jackson’s opening comment on BTN: these teams are playing for NIT seeding. What a d-che. Hit mute and turned on Mr Cat and Tim Doyle.
+1
Carmody use a timeout. Were down by 13. You’re worthless. Phillips, how many years are you adding to this jokers contract? Both are worthless.
Where’d you go? Surely you wouldn’t only post when things are going poorly for the ‘Cats, right?
“byebye” gets awfully quiet following wins….
The 1-3-1 and hustle D gives us a huge comeback, all with Shurna on the bench with 2 fouls. To quote Timmy D, Hearn has earned an A+ this season.
Come on War Horse..Finish with a flurry…..
They’re answering us bucket for bucket. This will go down to the wire; hopefully, we keep making these shots.
Another game going down to the wire….why can’t we just put these teams away. Here we go again.
Nothing like burning all your time outs because you can’t inbound the ball….c’mon guys!
Oh My GERD…….Sobo got the rotations to go our way!!!!!!
What a game.
Yep…a win’s a win!
Just need to win first game of Big Ten tournament now. Get it done.
At least…I’d like to be a little greedy and win a couple next weekend.
Good God, always the DRAMA with this team!
We’ll take the win, though.
They did it! Total team effort!
See you in Indy on Thursday at 530 EST…
It was never in doubt, my friends!
I think we need to win twice at Indy to get an at-large bid. Of course if we can win twice, there’s no reason we can’t win twice more to remove all doubt. Go ‘Cats!
Pretty sure a half the fanbase had heart problems at the end of this game.
Regardless, take a win any way we can.
Just need to take care of business in the Big Ten tournament, and we’re in.
Wichita St. loses and there goes a bubble spot.
Yep. Can’t take anything for granted now…
No, not really. Both Wichita St. an Creighton were/are locks for the tourney from the MVC. They were destined to meet in the MVC Championship game, but assuming Creighton wins today and then beats Illinois State tomorrow no bubble spot is taken.
Creighton looking dominant at the half of that game.
Not true, as long as Creighton wins the MVC tourney. Wichita and Creighton were both in already. Come on Bluejays! They can help our RPI in the process.
It seems like forever since we’ve played a game that *didn’t* come down to the final seconds. But the Cats win! Way to fight back from a halftime deficit, and from the OSU game. Now take care of business in the tourney. I’m not counting on our “story” to make the dance — let’s win at least one game in the B1G tourney. If we wanna dance, we gotta deserve it! Go Cats!
Correcting myself: we were, in fact, up at the half — but we were down big early. Only caught the last few minutes of the game, and in my excitement, I read the recaps too quickly!
We went on a huge run to end the first half. That really set it in motion.
Also, there’s really no sweeter feeling than beating Iowa.
Will this be known as the Jershon Cobb game? Kid was nails today, logging heavy minutes and coming up with huge shots.
Minnesota’s gonna be a tough out. Hope we can force their guards to turnover.
And yes, the haters are quiet again.
All I can say is Thank God we won. Bill is staying now. Kids got too cautious win 10 minutes to go. I keep going back to our 6 close losses. We should have won more of those and all this would be mute point. How does next years frosh class look? This team is better than our record looks!
FIRE CARMODY!!!! AND MORE HYSTERICAL YELLING!!!!
Funny how some of our “fans” seem to delight in being angry about losses and celebrating a MUST WIN in a tough building in THE toughest conference, despite a poor game from our star.
I will say nothing about Carmody and his job. Anybody who has read this lately knows how I feel, and nothing has changed on that front. They are 8-10 in the big ten, hardly a chest thumping resume builder. However, these kids who take the floor every game are incredible. To come back from that game on Wed. night, get down early and then rattle off a 17-0 run is simply amazing. The mental toughness is really amazing. I tip my cap to them, and will remember this season b/c of their effort forever. Congrats no matter whatever happens.
@ Bear 44 — Well said. I had a very sharp knife close by when I saw that Ed Hightower was one of the referees. I picked it up when the Cats were clanking shots early, collecting early fouls, and Iowa was getting easy baskets. I was about give up on these guys when we went down by 13, and then 15 without Carmody calling a timeout. Then, I switched seats in the man cave and all of a sudden, the Cats go on a great run to close out the half up by 7! The team showed tremendous heart and had faith in themselves. It was very scary at the end with the missed FTs and the wide-open three attempt we gave Iowa, but what a great win after a tough loss to tOSU. Go Cats!
I’ll also keep my trap mostly shut about our coach. Great effort by everyone on the floor today, especially in limiting Iowa possessions in the second half with the offensive rebounding.
I will say one thing, though — I honestly don’t think the game should have been as close as it was.
What a game from our guys! 10 minutes of sleeping followed by 30 minutes of fight, scratch, and claw. They weathered numerous stretches of that game where Carver-Hawkeye was getting loud as the momentum grew for Iowa. We pushed right back each and every time! The haters are quiet! Thank God. Let’s keep up the offensive intensity, newly-discovered rebounding fundamentals, and active defense going into Indy!
@zeek
“there’s really no sweeter feeling than beating Iowa.”
It’s terrific. The nightmares we’ve given them on the football field have wandered onto the basketball floor…5 in a row!
Also, take a look at BHGP. If you’re not laughing hysterically after the 40th F-word, something is wrong with you. Gotta love angry hawkeyes!
First place I always go to after a Northwestern win over Iowa is BHGP. It’s always a Shakespearean tragedy in action when we beat them.
If today is an indication that Cobb has his shot back, we become a team that no one will want to face.
Careful about saying that. I commented after the MSU game that we might actually have a real center now (re: Curletti). Call me dead wrong.
They mentioned this on the BTN postgame, but we now have 5 straight wins over Io_a for the first time since winning 7 straight from 1928-32.
Have now won 6 of the last 8 in MBB and 5 of the last 7 in football against them (9-6 in football since 1995).
so tired of the drama. even when we win it is just infuriating how we do it. make free throws!
‘Settle down, Beavis.’ Even the most sanguine view of the NCAA tournament world requires us to win at least one game in the B1G tournament. More likely, it will require two wins to hit the NCAA tournament. We should not be in this position. Those close loses have come back to bite us in the ass. I only hope we can find the killer instinct to truly put someone away. If Carmody is as terrific as many of you think he is he better have some magic in Indy. More likely, ‘looks like [NIT] to me’!
Agreed. This “we need to win one in Indy and it’s a done deal” mindset is ridiculous. A win over Minny?! Great, another win against a crappy team. Win against #2 seed Michigan on Friday and then we can START to feel pretty good (20 wins, good RPI and SOS). Play well (win or lose) Saturday and you can definitely tune in with hope on Sunday.
For the record I have been traveling today but kept score updates refreshed on my phone all game. Super pumped!! Keep it rollin’!
Great win by the team today. No matter what happens, you can’t ever question this team’s heart and resilience. I wish Shurna would take a little more time on his FTs. I think he could be a 80%+ FT shooter with a better pre-shot routine. At least he made them against PSU.
Probably safe to bet we’re about to lose one of our top 50 wins with Seton Hall getting absolutely whacked at DePaul. Will be very curious to see how far Seton Hall drops. DePaul’s RPI heading into the week was 201.
Does SHU dropping help or hurt us? They were considered “in”, but a bad loss and SHU also will finish 8-10 in the Big East – just like we did in the B1G.
Lunardi had then as an #11 seed going into today. Unfortunately, I think this is such a bad loss that they drop into “Last Four Out”. Shit.
And wow…that place seems like it can be a tough place to play. And wow did we shut them up and punch ‘em right back in the mouth after falling back double digits. WIth every three put up by iowa you could here the collective gasp of the crowd, and with every made three there would be an eruption of cheering and standing. BUt the ‘cats fought back, and they really kept the place quiet and under control. Great game, totally worth the drive.