Gameday: Northwestern (6-5) vs #11 Michigan State (9-2)
By Lake The Posts on
It’s senior day. The regular season finale. #11 Michigan State is in town. We’re playing for bowl positioning. Let’s do this…
Kickoff: 11:00 am CT
Location: Ryan Field (47,130)- Evanston, IL
TV: BTN (ALTERNATE) – Eric Collins PXP, Chris Martin Color, Dionne Miller SL
Radio: WGN (720 AM) Dave Eanet PXP, Ted Albrecht Color, WNUR (89.3 FM), Sirius (Channel 113 and 85)
Internet: WGNradio.com, WNUR.org
Gametracker: NUsports.com
In-game Twitter Updates: @NU_SportsLIVE
Spread: Sparty favored by 6
Last Meeting: Michigan State 35 Northwestern 27 (2010 @ Northwestern)
Trends: MSU is 7-5 since 1995; ‘Cats have not beat Sparty in Evanston since 2001; Fitz is 5-0 on senior day
Alltime Series:Michigan State leads 35-16
Pat Fitzgerald Era: Michigan State leads 4-1
Since 1995: Michigan State leads 7-5
Favorite LTP Win: 2001 “Instant Classic”
Least Favorite ‘Cats Loss: The All-time “Bad” Comeback -2006
2-Minute Drill
It’s senior day in Evanston and the winningest senior class in NU history takes Ryan Field one final time with a ton to play for. With a win, Northwestern would move to 7-5,4-4 and enter a bowl free for all which could have them going somewhere very warm come end of December based on the unprecedented variables in the Big Ten bowl season. However, this is likely the biggest defensive challenge the ‘Cats have faced all season. The rainy forecast favors Sparty as you’ve got to expect NU to replicate the same gameplan we implemented against Nebraska to stop the run. Michigan State enters the game having already clinched the Legends Division and has punched a ticket to the inaugural Big Ten Championship.
When NU Has The Ball
The ‘Cats are the most productive passing team in the Big Ten. With a steady dose of rain in the forecast, it will be interesting to see how this impacts our gameplan. Let’s face it, messy conditions are not our friend as a ram it down the throats grudge match in the line game will likely result in a loss. Michigan State’s defensive statistics make you shudder. They give up 101 ypg on the ground, tops in the Big Ten and 10th in the nation. In the air, they give up a stingy 156 ypg which is 4th in the nation. Scoring? Only 15 ppg, which is 5th in the nation. You get the picture, Sparty’s total defense gives up 257 total yards per game, third best in the nation. You can bet they’ve gameplanned to stop Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore.
The weather will really be interesting in this one. Should a steady rain impact our Big Ten best passing game, advantage Sparty. However, with Persa on senior day, you’ve got to believe the focus will be at another notch. Plus, the Kain Colter factor could be in play in this one as you know Fitz is still seething about the Dantonio grin and postgame comment of “they took the cheese” from last year’s 17-0 comeback which turned on the now infamous fake punt. We’ve put up points all year long on teams that boasted stingy defenses, but we’ve yet to play in conditions like this. The average of 438.5 ypg and 30.5 ppg for our ‘Cats will be very tough to attain today. If we did either, it would likely be enough for the “w”. Keep your eyes on Jerel Worthy and William Gholston, the anchors of the Sparty “D” who will both be playing on Sunday soon.
When Sparty Has The Ball
It’s been an atypical year for Sparty. The team synonymous with a scintillating ground game has struggled at times this year despite having a pair of very respectable backs – Le’Veon Bell (5.4 ypc, 708 yds) and Edwin Baker (4.1 ypc, 507 yds). The Spartan O-line has been one of the only question marks this season (due in part to injury) and Michigan State has become big play “U” on offense relying on the electrifying duo of BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin as the go-to receivers for Kirk Cousins. History would indicate a heavy dose of run-run-play action. Simply put, we don’t match-up well with Michigan State on defense as Jeravin Matthews will have his hands full today and the height of the Sparty receivers poses match-up problems for our secondary. How many years in a row have we seen the play action lead to a big play for Sparty? I fear, with this secondary that has given up so many deep balls, we’re due for a few today. I hope I’m wrong.
The big question is whether or not Mark Dantonio will look to protect any of his key players in this game. All pregame indications would say “no”, but you simply don’t know. It’s a rare week when you don’t have to defend a dual threat QB in the Big Ten and this is that week. Kirk Cousins is not a threat to run, but despite having an inconsistent season, he can do damage with time, and Sparty is a solid pass protection team.
Intangibles
You’ve got to like the match-up on the return game as Venric Mark is fresh off a pair of almost-to-the-house returns last week against a Sparty team that is ranked 99th against kickoff returns. Their punt coverage is below-average as well, but they also boast Keshawn Martin, a top-rated return man in his own right. Northwestern has been stellar on the return game. Much like last week, a couple of big returns could be the difference in the game.
The ‘Cats have been perfect on senior day in the Fitz era and you get the sense we have an extra dose of focus for this one. Sparty has owned us as we’ve only beaten them in 2007 with a Fitz-coached team and lost some devastating games during this run. Simply put, I think we want this one more than they do as a win here and the arrow up in our program is pronounced heading in to a critical off-season with a development campaign and several four-star recruits with whom we are on the finalist list for their services. A five game winning streak with a pair of wins over top 15 teams would be just the storyline a lot of bowls would love to have as we go to end the bowl drought.
Lake The Posts Factor: 9
It doesn’t get much more emotional than this. Senior day and a chance to play for a much better bowl game against the #11 team in the nation. A win here is cause to celebrate not only the win, but the accomplishments of this class, which has stabilized the program at the competitive level week in and week out. If you’re looking for omens, then look no further than Fitz’s senior day record. Oh yeah, the same BTN crew that called our upset at Nebraska is back as well.
Stats to Stew On:
- Dan Persa has 5,583 total yards and needs just 60 more to pass Steve Schnur and finish 6th all-time at NU.
- Persa has 32 career TD passes and needs one more for sole possession of 5th place (currently tied 5th with Schnur). He’ll likely finish here as well as Zak Kustok is 4th with 42 TDs.
- Jeremy Ebert needs 14 yards to reach the 1,000 mark for the season, which would make him one of three Wildcats to accomplish the feat (D’Wayne Bates did it 2X, Richard Buchanan)
- Ebert needs 40 receiving yards to move past Richard Buchanan for third place in single-season yardage.
- With 10 receptions, Ebert would hop all the way to third on the alltime NU reception list. He is currently 9th with 162.
- Ebert needs 2 TD receptions to tie Richard Buchanan for second on the alltime NU list.
Predictions:
PRR: It has been an incredible ride for Northwestern to get to 6-5. The four-game win streak that followed the five-game losing streak showed this team has a lot of resolve and is a testament to the fight that is in this group. It is unfortunate that it was discovered so late so that this could not be an even more special season (this is a great group). They will have to show that resolve one more time against a very talented and very strong Michigan State team. The Spartans have everything on their roster that the Wildcats struggle with — a smart quarterback in Kirk Cousins with strong receivers like B.J. Cunningham and a dynamic running back like Leveon Bell. The defense will have its hands full. The offense will produce points, but it has to be sharp and give the defense every chance it can in field position and time of possession. It is going to be a tug of war for sure.
Michigan State 28, Northwestern 24
LTP: It’s senior day. Fitz is undefeated (5-0) in Ryan Field finales and this one would be right up there with the upset of then #17 Wisconsin in 2009. #11 Michigan State enters Saturday as 6 point favorites over NU having sewn up the spot in the inaugural Big Ten Championship next week in Indy. Conventional wisdom is calling for a slight letdown factor based on the stakes and Sparty’s history, but they seem to have NU’s number beating us in nearly every conceivable fashion this century (7-5 vs NU since 1995).
Weather could be a factor and the Spartan line and ground game over them a huge advantage over NU. Kirk Cousins has been inconsistent, but playing NU seems to be a cure for spotty QBs this season, sans Nebraska. Michigan State will pound, pound, play action against us so the gameplan is to limit the explosion plays. The same ones that made our October hellish. Will we be able to limit the big play? Will the weather dampen our passing game? If it comes down to run vs run, we’re in for a long day. The Spartans are top 10 in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. Simply put, it’s the best defense we’ll face all season. To get to win #7 we’ll need some help….Jack?
Michigan State 34 Northwestern 24
Jack Marshall: His picks are plain to see (see photo). I haven’t received a report yet as to how Brian Peters will impact the game or what crazy play you can count on, but I’ll pass it along when I do. Jack is 4-0 in his picks on the season and once again he goes with the pick from the heart. Here’s to our good luck charm being spot on once again. As he says, “Sparty is going down…..”
Northwestern 21 Michigan State 17
We should get to 7 wins today. But after yesterday there are 45 teams with 7+ wins, 19 teams with 6 wins and 14 who are still alive…not losing 7. So there are 64 eligible teams. Let’s look at the 14.
ACC- 1 likely to get eligible
NC State plays Maryland and likely wins.
B10- 1 likely to get eligible
Purdue should beat Indiana
Big 12- 0 likely to get eligible
TT plays Baylor and likely loses.
Big East- 1 likely to get eligible
-Syracuse plays Cincy and Pitt. Likely loss to Cincy. Pitt will be an elimination game. One gets to 6 the other does not.
-Pitt will likely have an elimination game with Syracuse
-S. Fla will likely lose to W. VA
-UCONN will likely lose to Rutgers and Cincy
SEC- 2 teams likely to get bowl eligible
-Vandy- may lose to Wake Forrest
-TN likely beats Kentucky
-Miss St likely beats Ole Miss
CUSA- 1 team likely to get eligible
-Marshall and East Carolina is an elimination game.
WAC- 1 team may get eligible
-Hawaii will likely lose to BYU next week
-Utah State needs a win against either Nevada or NM St. This is not a lock.
It looks to me like 7 teams who have not been eliminated will likely get eligible. So…if we have 45+19+7=71 teams. Then there is the issue of whether UCLA could get an exemption if they finish 6-7. If they can not get the exemption that would knock the field to 70. So…it is looking very good. I will not be rooting so hard against Purdue today.
Just met Jack Marshall and his family here in the DJ booth….Jack and his sister had a chance to press the “growl growl” button in the stadium, and we even set the scoreboard to match Jack’s Playstation score for today’s game (Northwestern 99, MSU 0)…..fun times, and nice to meet the Marshalls….regardless of today’s outcome, the day is already a success.
GO CATS!
Looking forward to today’s game – I just wish the first (and only) time I get to use my season tickets was less rainy! Oh well… Go ‘Cats!
Wow Fitz. Lets run the ball on the first play of the last drive of the 1st half. REALLY? Even the announcers said “That was an odd play call.” Then lets run the ball on 3rd down and give the ball back to MSU seeing as they have time outs. Then they get a TOUCHDOWN!!! All I want for Christmas is you getting the head coaching job at PSU.
Byebye, are you always this fun to be around? Run worked pretty well on 3rd and 4th down the previous few drives.
Yeah those runs worked well when we needed 2-4 yards. We needed to go a lot farther than that though. You know your competitor has timeouts to burn and you don’t go for a first but just run the ball? 3rd and 16 and you run? Yeah I am pretty fun. Thanks for noticing Jim.
That was a bizarre sequence to end the 1st half. Not really sure what Fitz was thinking right there.
The fumble earlier really killed us, we were really close to scoring after that Michigan State INT, and all of a sudden we’re down 14 at the half.
Very bizarre. I think we’ve all seen that when we go for the conservative plays it bites us. Play for the win!
No kidding, we had a timeout and plenty of time and we decide to get conservative all of a sudden. We had been moving the ball well most of the game, lets spread out the secondary and try something at least. Crap play calling once again.
1st quarter was all you wanted for NU this season; the 2nd exposed each and every weakness. I can’t even record this.
What will show up in the second half.
I wouldn’t record it either. After that punt return I actually turned over to the OSU/UM game for a little bit. Sad thing.
WAIT …. that \other\ NU team showed up. Recorder back on.
HAHA come on man…it’s NU…keep that recorder off. I love the purple and black but lets be real. Our secondary is a joke.
It’s going to be really tough for our D to stop Cousins and company.
At this point it’s a race to 30+ points, and Michigan State is already at 24.
I’d like to see us score another 2 or so touchdowns though and at least make a game of it.
All that really matters is that we should have a bowl bid locked up.
I agree with Zeek here. We need to be only one score down by the start of the 4th. MSU will burn that clock and run, run, run in the 4th.
Our D got the stop we needed earlier, but we were unable to capitalize; going to need some more help somewhere.
Ugh. Did Hank fall asleep at the wheel? My 4 year old told me Persa would be sacked under pressure on 3rd and 4th downs.
I don’t know why we never saw a rollout and stopped seeing passes into the flat throughout the 4th quarter. Hank kept trying to fight the blitz with the same minimum protection. It’s like the little kid in the schoolyard daring the bigger kid to hit him. Which he does. Again, and again. And again. And again. We need to outsmart, not outmuscle.
Agree. It still baffles me how we have a coach who was a Defensive Standout in College and yet has one of the worst defenses in the big ten.
Hankwitz was a tight end on Bo’s 1969 team, not a defensive player. And since he’s the DC, not the OC, he doesn’t call offensive plays.
This will be remembered as the season that “Should have Been”. This is a sad fini.
Hey byebyefitz….I wish you would just bye bye. We all understand your position on the team and the game…you’re becoming a broken record. I would prefer to focus on the great senior class this team has and talk about how proud we are of them. I think we played competively and sure wish we would have gotten the upset, but I don’t believe on Senior Day we need to pick them apart to gain nothing. Keep things positive.
haha…I never said I wasn’t proud of the seniors…just not proud of the coaches. Hope I didn’t hurt your feelings to much wolfcat.
We are once again bowl eligible..I believe that is quite a remarkable accomplishment for the program and not a sad finish to the season.
Bowl eligibility is a sign of mediocrity. get to 500 in big ten play then we can talk about accomplishments.
I agree wolfcat. Thank god for teams like BC, EIU, RICE, Indiana and Minnesota. Without those below .500 teams where else would we get those wins?
I see all the wishful thinking/strained calculations … I hope NU will see a bowl. If that’s what this blog’s cheerleading squad wants to hang it’s hat on … I hope you’re proven correct and it’s not yet one last disappointment.
Sugar coat this season and you will insure you get the same next year.
At the end of the day, the Wildcats are still the Wildcats. All of the weaknesses and deficiencies that we have complained about all season were on full display today. Rushing three and never blitzing, allowed Cousins, not noted for his running took the ball and grabbed all of the open field yardage that the defense allowed him. The Cats were so concerned about not being beaten with the long ball that defenders left the line and fell back into coverage. The defense needs an overhaul and, maybe, new assistant coaches.
Not sure that it would have changed the outcome of the game, but the B1G officials called the game as if they were intent upon protecting Michigan State. The Spartans brought their “Ogie Oglethorpe” style of play and sportsmanship to the fore as well. Some of the most blatant fouls were flagged, but a dozen more were ignored.
A disappointing end to a disappointing season. A bowl is still possible, but let’s be realistic, the Wildcats need help to advance. Detroit may be the best and I am not sure how NU matches up against the MAC teams.
allowed Cousins to take the ball and run and grab all of the open field yardage… usually converting for first downs in the process.
I gotta ask…where were these fouls that were not called? Looked like a clean game to me. Don’t blame the refs because we lost. I wish we would have won but Cousins is Cousins.
Michigan State has a well deserved reputation of being a dirty football team. Mark D’Antonio is as much as prison warden as a head coach. Portions of the game reminded me of “The Longest Yard” except Burt Reynolds, Eddie Albert and Ted Cassidy were not on the field.
Yes, some of the most blatant personal fouls were called against the Spartans, but not all.
I have not seen videotape, but I am not one hundred percent positive if Green’s key fumble did not occur after he was already down. I would like to see the actual footage and review that play.
On one play, the referee who was right on top of the play ignored, not one, but two illegal blocks by the Spartans. On one pass interference play called against Northwestern, one official waved off the penalty. Another official farther removed from the play threw a flag. Guess which call stood? The Spartans kept driving afterwards. On offense, Northwestern was jobbed on spots all day long.
The B1G Conference is notorious for protecting its top teams that are in competition for BCS bowl games. Today was no exception. There is a financial incentive for the conference to see that more than one conference teams plays in a BCS bowl.
I think that in all likelihood, the Spartans probably would have still won the game had the officials done an adequate job, but the difference in the contest would have been 3-7 points, not fourteen.
you said “On one pass interference play called against Northwestern, one official waved off the penalty. Another official farther removed from the play threw a flag. Guess which call stood? The Spartans kept driving afterwards.”
That was pass interference. I was watching the game from home and saw all the instant replays.
As for your others…no clue. Lock yourself in your basement tonight, look over game film and let me know.
I do not want to unlock the basement tonight for fear of letting you out, Sunshine.
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