The Green Jacket Handicaps NU’s Bowl Possibilities

Hmmm.

What I’m reading here is that an at-large bowl bid is getting more and more unlikely, and that we’ll have to win against Michigan State to have a chance. State has been absolutely merciless this year to opponents with weaker defenses, and could very well be our stiffest test of the year.

A win, however, does open up some interesting scenarios:

How does a 7-5 Northwestern compare to a 6-6 Ohio State, 6-6 Purdue, or 7-5/6-6 Illinois? I’m thinking that riding a five game win streak and with quality wins over Michigan State and Nebraska, we’d be getting the nod over any of these other programs. In this light, it seems like one of the Texas bowls would be more likely than Detroit.

Assume we do win Saturday, and fall all the way to Pizza, does whoever win the MAC influence Pizza bowl’s B1G selection? Would an Illinois/Northern Illinois tilt be considered more desirable than a NU/Northern Illinois match-up?

Lastly, anybody hear any word on whether B1G is thinking of upping their number of bowl affiliations since Nebraska is now in the fold? Maybe this will be the last bowl contract cycle a 6-6 B1G team will have to sweat it out. And, if B1G does add another, which bowl would you like to see?

No no no no no no. Why is everyone thinking that we are not even going to get a B1G bowl? I posted this yesterday:

The way I see the bowl scenario shaking out. Assuming we win next week, we are competing with Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State for the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. Next week Illinois plays @Minnesota, Iowa plays @Nebraska, and Ohio State plays @Michigan. I would argue that none of those teams are going to win next week, leaving NU with a huge opportunity to finish 7-5, ahead of 6-6 Illinois and 6-6 Ohio State, and tied with 7-5 Iowa. At that point, I would say that given our momentum (riding a 5 game win streak), we would get a bid to the Car Care bowl. And, if Michigan get a BCS birth, that would virtually assure us a spot in the Car Care Bowl and would even open up the possibility for the Insight Bowl. Obviously, that is all for naught if we don’t beat MSU next week.

If anyone would like to take a peek, this morning’s post has been updated to reflect additional and current info. Thanks for getting it up there!

Huge win against Seton Hall. We looked dominant until that 15 point run by Seton Hall, but we showed a huge amount of poise down the stretch. Pope is a really impressive player; he did it all for Seton Hall.

Good win in my opinion. I think Seton Hall will get some wins in the Big East, that can only help us in the future.

Feels good to win a tournament like this, even though we all know Big Ten play is where we need to shine this year. I like how our team looks early though.

Question with the Hawaii bowl: If Hawaii doesn’t become eligible, does the Hawaii Bowl have to take another WAC team or can they fish in the at-large pool? With Hawaii leaving the WAC, the Hawaii Bowl is probably leaving with them, so I’m not sure how tied the bowl is to the WAC, and NU likely is more attractive to them than Utah St. (Assuming USU qualifies).

It would really be interesting if Northwestern can take care of its business against Michigan State while Minnesota upset Illinois and Indiana startled Purudue. Asking the Hoosiers to take the Oaken Bucket is no small task, but if they succeeded that would eliminate the Boilermakers from the equation. If the Illini lost their final regular season game to the Golden Gophers, how attractive would a 6-6 bowl eligible team be to bowl sponsors after losing six in a row? Wishful thinking, of course, but stranger things have happened. First things first, Go Cats! Beat Sparty!

Re: OSU self-imposed ban.

They’d be foolish NOT to do it. Since they’re going to a second-rate bowl this year anyway, they should skip it. They’ll likely have a better record in subsequent years and qualify for much larger payouts. Sacrificing this year makes the most sense. No doubt Miami used the same logic.

Minnesota fan here. First, congrats on the win. Went to the game, and had a great time tailgating outside the stadium with some VERY hospitable Wildcat fans. Even met Gary Barnett during the postgame tailgate.

I think our game with Illinois this Satuday will determine whether the ‘Cats or Illini go to Detroit – Purdue should get eligible against Indiana, and with it being their first bowl in four years, and the TicketCity likely looking for a different B10 rep, I see the Boilers as the most attractive team.

One thing not discussed much in the bowl breakdown is the MAC and all their secondary tie-ins. They have back-up deals with the BBVA Compass Bowl, Kraft Bowl, and New Mexico Bowl, and it seems likely they’ll fill at least two of those spots. NIU, Toledo, Ohio, Western Michigan and Temple should all get bowl bids, and Ball State could join them.

As I see it, the only remaining at-large openings would be the vacated C-USA slots in the New Orleans Bowl and the Hawaii Bowl (which will still take a WAC team, assuming Utah State becomes eligible). Illinois/Northwestern, Iowa State and perhaps a 6-6 Big East team (Syracuse/Pitt/South Florida….who knows, that conference is a mess) would be the AQ schools at the top of the list.

Anyway, good luck this Saturday against Sparty and in the bowl game. Hope we can join the postseason fun again within the next couple of years.

After doing some reading, I wanted to give my thoughts on the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. It does indeed appear to be a realistic possibility.

First, let’s layout their selection process. The game pits a Pac-12 opponent against Army/WAC/MAC. The Pac-12 will fill their spot regardless of whether they send one or two to the BCS. Army is ineligible, so Kraft would then look to the WAC.

The WAC has three bowl tie-ins, excluding their agreement with the BCS. They are the Poinsettia Bowl, the Idaho Bowl, and the Hawai’i Bowl. Currently, the WAC has two bowl eligible teams in Louisiana Tech and Nevada. Both have already accepted bowl invitations to the Poinsettia Bowl and Idaho Bowl, respectively. The WAC also has two schools that can still become bowl eligible.

Hawai’i currently sits at 5-6, without their starting QB, and finish with home games against Tulane and BYU. Due to their 13 game season, they must finish at least 7-6 to become bowl eligible. If they do, they have an agreement with the Hawai’i Bowl for an automatic invitation. But there’s a good chance that Hawai’i will not get to 7 wins, which we won’t know until the night of December 3rd unless they lose to Tulane. The other school is Utah State, which sits at 5-5. They host Nevada on Saturday and travel to New Mexico State on December 3rd. A win against either would make Utah State bowl eligible for the first time in 11 years. If both schools gain bowl eligibility, they will fill both the Hawai’i Bowl and Kraft Bowl slots. If one or none gain eligibility, however, the Kraft Bowl slot will not be filled by the WAC.

And this is where things get interesting. I refer you to this update from the executive director of the Kraft Bowl, dated November 16th: http://www.kraftbowl.org/ot/embl-from-the-exec.html

Specifically this: “Two other conferences may have an extra team available–the Big Ten and Mountain West, so there may be some horse trading and last-minute deals to come. One thing is certain: the next three weeks are going to be a wild ride. Stay tuned.”

The Kraft Bowl currently has a backup deal for the 5th bowl eligible team from the MAC, which currently has 7 bowl eligible teams. However, based on the above passage, it is clear that a team from the MAC is not certain to backup the WAC should the WAC not fill the spot. If they were motivated enough, they could try to make some sort of deal to avoid taking a MAC program. I believe it was Teddy Greenstein who wrote last week that the Kraft bowl was keen on Northwestern. It certainly helps given the number of alumni in California. Their board chairman got his MBA from Northwestern, which probably helps things, as well.

And this brings us back to the Big Ten. I’m uncertain if Northwestern would pass on a Little Caesar’s invite to go to San Francisco if there is no other Big Ten team to take that spot, but for the sake of this exercise, I’m going to assume they would not. So in order for Northwestern to go to the Kraft Bowl, one of the following scenarios must unfold:

1) Michigan gets an at-large BCS bid (a near certainty if they beat Ohio State) and neither Penn State nor Ohio State decide to forgo bowl invites
2) Michigan gets an at-large BCS bid, one of Penn State or Ohio State forgo a bowl invite but not both, and Purdue beats Indiana to become bowl eligible
3) Michigan loses to Ohio State, sending only one Big Ten team to a BCS bowl

I think Northwestern would like to head to Houston for the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, but that likely will only happen if Michigan gets an at-large BCS bid and either one of Penn State or Ohio State forgo a bowl invite or Penn State falls to Meineke and they decide to pass on the Nittany Lions, as well. I’d imagine that the TicketCity Bowl would like to avoid taking Northwestern for the second straight year and Northwestern probably wouldn’t mind. And the Little Caesar’s Bowl would likely take the more local fan base in Purdue if the Boilermakers gain bowl eligibility and possibly even Illinois’ local fan base despite their slide. However, even if the TicketCity Bowl or the Little Caesar’s Bowl preferred Northwestern, Northwestern and the Big Ten office could work things out with those two bowls to allow Northwestern to head to San Francisco.

If the Kraft Bowl is an option, of course.