The Big Picture

I don’t think the offense was particularly conservative. Colter seemed to get a more open playbook than the first two games and there were quite a few deep routes being called. Kain just had trouble connecting. There were two passes to Ebert down the seam that would have gone for big plays, if not touchdowns, that weren’t on target.

I also wouldn’t call the Illinois game a must-win. Nebraska and Iowa might end up being more challenging, but I don’t think there are going to be many other games on this schedule that will be more difficult than the Big Ten opener.

Persa is going to change the look of this offense. Keeping the run game going will be critical, but he’s going to be able to pick apart secondaries in a way that Colter can’t, at least right now.

@Mark

If you’re referring to the NU allotment, mine arrived in the mail on Saturday. It’s the usual visitor’s section.

@Mark

Read that article on Saturday Night here’s the link:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/10/the-shame-of-college-sports/8643/

Thought the origin of the term ‘student-athlete’ was particularly dark and cynical. While I’m proud of the way the Athletic department takes care of its athletes, I can’t help but wonder if ‘doing things the right way’ is even possible in such a system where the ‘right way’ doesn’t seem to exist.

As ugly as the Army loss was, let’s try to put it in perspective a bit. Very few of us, I think, expected to get through our non-conference schedule without a loss. Unfortunately, the red-herring that has become the BC victory raised expectations more than was justified. Army’s previous losses didn’t help either, but from what I’ve read in this blog, that was more from self-inflicted wounds than lack of skill — much like the Irish, in fact. This week both of those teams took care of the football and dominated. It’s perhaps a credit to our defense that they manage to keep Army out of the endzone despite being steamrolled for 40 minutes. Although again, during the last 6 minutes when they needed to step up and close the door, they were unable to.

Let’s face it. This is a team that, last year with Persa, managed to scrape out some close wins, and without, struggled just to compete. There were a lot of questions entering this season about how far we’ve come since. Unfortunately, it looks like not much. Having just faced our toughest opponent so far, the defense failed to perform, and the Colter bandwagon has seemingly screeched to a halt and thrown the question of who’s our #2 QB back up into the air. This team needs to be something other than Persa, and so far it hasn’t really happened. That’s pretty much how we ended up last year. IMO, getting back to a bowl game is about where the bar should be set for this year.

What’s most damaging about this loss, I think, is how it once again leaves the fan base high and dry. Our showing for this game was pretty remarkable, as it has been during our recent bowl run. But sooner or later, I think people are going to want to see that our team we can win one these games before continuing to invest significant time and money on supporting them.

And one comment about our new “Chicago’s Big Ten team” motto: perhaps it’s just because I’m actually from Chicago (and when I say that, I mean from within the actual city limits, not from somewhere within a 2-hour radius), but it’d be nice if there was some, you know, actual association with the city. I’m speaking specifically of band day at our home opener. While we seemed to be able truck in bands from suburbs near and far — even as far away as Minnesota — as far as I could tell, there wasn’t a single band from the actual city. Of course, if I’m wrong, feel free to set me straight. :-)

Folks, we are we are… A 40-50 level program in terms of on-field performance capable of winning 6-7 games against our current schedule. Said it numerous times on this blog that with the current coaching staff and approach a reasonable expectation should be to challenge for a Big Ten title every 3-4 years, go at least .500 in The Big Ten on an annual basis and win a bowl game or two every three years. That said, NU will continue to be on the upper end of mediocrity with Fitzgerald as coach… Enjoy it for what it is… Enough to keep us all coming back for more and debating the same shit every year…

Perhaps a thought experiment can solve the “Who’s to blame, offense or defense” question? If you were told before the game that you could lock in Army at scoring 21 points, would you have taken it? My guess is that a lot of people would say yes. If you were told before the game that you could lock in the Cats at 14 points, would you have taken it? I doubt anyone would have. So while giving up 21 was not great, 14 points on O was unacceptable.

Also, about the Cats being tight, sometimes you can be overcoached. On many plays, it seemed like the LB was chanting to himself “contain” and Steelman (Army QB) would cut inside for a gain. The D seemed like they were thinking too much instead of being aggressive.

Just a thought, but it looked to me like the Cats may have deliberately let Army score the final TD in order to preserve time. If they hadn’t, Army would have used up the rest of the clock and likely scored anyway.

Finally, I thought that Army did to NU what NU normally does to other teams. They overcame superior talent by methodically running what they did best and doing it well. Whereas with the Cats it is the spread run very quickly and tiring out the D, Army does the opposite and moves slowly and grinds down the D. It seemed like our coaches didn’t have a plan to use the Cats’ superior athleticism. We neither tried to use superior line size/strength to overcome the opponent nor did the Cats create opportunities in space to use their speed on O.

One other thing, I hate to say this, but look at the 2013-2014 schedules.

Right now our non-protected crossovers are Indiana and Penn State. Penn State is relatively down and Indiana is Indiana.

In 2013-2014, our non-protected crossovers are Wisconsin and Ohio State. By then both could be firing on all cylinders. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but we simply don’t have the margin of error to be dropping games like this in the future.

Our schedules ramp up in difficulty immensely by 2013 with the non-conference additions along with those two teams rotating onto the schedule. We’ll also have 9 conference games eventually.

In the future, we simply can’t be dropping games to non-conference foes that we have to beat.

Punting 3 times within their 40?
That’s not showing any sign of killer instinct.

The fact that we recovered a fumble at their 30, proceeded to go backwards and then punt just about sums up my feelings on this game.

Awaiting Henry’s comments…………………because I might just agree with him

@LTP…persa at qb and colter running motion…perfect slight of hand to disguise schmidt up the middle for 2.5 yds…

@Skepticat-
Given the fact, we are coming off a 3-5 Big Ten season, another bowl loss, and have not been an earnest contender for a Big Ten Championship in 10 years, let me clarify my doubts about the ability to achieve those parameters I described… My point was that scenario I proposed– is the best case expectation under the current regime and one as a season ticket holder and long time fan I’d say is realistic given the level of expertise at the top of the program. Finally, from what I’ve seen of Stanford, they are not playing 1-10 level ball via smashmouth.. Sure, some Pro Set and “West Coast” elements, but Luck provides the most capability at QB this side of The New England Patriots… All due respect to Mike Kafka who showed any of his doubters he does indeed belong in the league last night… Great job, Mike!

@N Smith- Actually, we agree on a few things starting with the fact sans the Glory Days of 95-96 (more 95) NU has done well in years the “O” is clicking… Without an effective offense, (25+PPG) this program will be hard pressed to stay mediocre. If that is a buzzkill, guility as charged! NU can play at a Top 25 level but new coordinators are needed and giving a 10 year deal (at a million plus a year…) to a 36 year old guy with no tenure per se beyond NU, sporting a career losing conference record and zero bowl wins was the sweetheart deal of the offseason in college football..

As we conduct this post mortem, let’s remind ourselves of a couple of realities:
(1) College Football is cyclical. Almost all programs have up and down cycles, except maybe those with absolutely no admission standards. Even Penn State has cycles, for Joe Pa’s sake. (2) Just about every team wins games they should lose, and loses games they should win. (3) Coaches have pipelines. Going back just one generation of coach, Randy Walker had an enviable running back pipeline. He had earned a reputation as a coach of RBs as an assistant at NU and NC, and as head coach at Miami. His reputation allowed him to recruit above NU’s weight at that position. He also had a linebacker pipeline to California. I don’t know what that pipeline was based on, but it let him bring in a lot of pretty high quality players. These pipelines are above all personal (I’m not talking about state school connections at the HS level, which are often based on regional loyalty). Walker’s pipelines did not survive his death.

The sad circumstances of Fitz’s accession at Northwestern meant that he hadn’t had the time to develop his own pipelines. He’s starting to – it seems he’s got a lineman pipeline from St. Edward’s Lakewood OH, and a couple of other places.

Walker’s death also meant that Fitz was tossed into the deep end well before he was “ready.” He was put there on an emergency basis by an AD who is a pretty good football man. His coordinators – experienced coordinators with decent reputations – were brought in to take some of the pressure off. The choice was a gamble, whose outcome is still uncertain.

After all, what should we expect from NU football? To contend for a national championship? Of course not. B1G title? Some years. Let’s be realistic about this. The reasonable hope is consistently above .500, very often in the .650 to .750 range, and once in a while above that. Bowl games 3 of 4 years is a realistic goal. Is Fitz the coach to get us there? I don’t think we can tell yet. Randy Walker was far better prepared to be a head coach than Fitz was, but in his first 5 years at Miami of Ohio he was just barely below .500. I think that Fitz has done very well. There are some caution flags, but given the circumstances, he’s done very well.

It seems to me that Fitz changed recruiting strategy a couple of years ago, beginning to place new emphasis on speed and athleticism. If I am right, and if it pays off, it’ll be next year. NU is not about to change horses, so we had better learn some patience.

And yes, I worry about the play calling, the O-line performance, and the defensive intensity too. On the other hand, I’ve seen bad coaching here – I saw John Pont and I saw Francis Peay, and the memories still sear. Wherever Fitz is on the coaching spectrum, he’s nowhere near those two.

@Antique Cat

I agree with you that it comes down to expectations. I think what you’re describing is the current reality and the reality of the last decade or so (with some down years), but I really, really hope we can shift the paradigm to where the expectation is that we’re going to be one of the top teams in the Big 10 every year. With the many recruiting disadvantages we have, it’s going to take extremely competent coaching to get there, which I think is why some of us freak out when we see a game where Fitz is clearly outcoached.

I know the current equilibrium is a huge step forward from where we’ve been historically, which is great. But I do think it’s possible for NU to develop into a Big 10 power and I’d love for that to happen.

@Antique Cat

Rick Venturi went 1-31-1 here in three seasons in the late ’70′s – those are the memories that sear for me, and would make me pine for Francis Peay’s average season at NU.

This is a great series of posts because I agree with almost all of them. To me, what went wrong on the field was a bit chicken and egg: the defense was on the field too long because the offense couldn’t sustain drives, and the offense did not have time to break out because they were never on the field because Army did sustain drives against our 3-4.

I also agree with those who assign blame to the coaches. I have no idea if Fitz, Hank of Mick are the right coaches for NU. However, even though I give coaches big leeway since I have zip experience as a coach, I think some adjustments should have been made – particularly on defense – as the game unfolded. I was sitting at home in London watching on a laptop and was wondering, ‘when are they going to put five men on the line rather than three’, but nothing happened. If I could see this, you think someone sitting in the press box could have.

I also am disappointed in those who have thrown in the towel. NU is so much better than when I attended in the Pont-Venturi era, and as much as I respected Dennis Green and Francis Peay, they did not win much. We win more games in a year now than we won during my four years at NU. Am I giddy with 7-5 – unfortunately, yes! The Big Ten is a tough place, and NU — because of what it is — will never be a Nebraska, Ohio State or even a Wisconsin … thank goodness for that. And, yes, whilst Stanford is great now, are the Cardinal’s 2010 and 2011 seasons like NU’s 1995 and 1996 seasons – here today, but unfortunately gone three years later?

I agree that the Cats have a lot of work to do during the two weeks before the Illinois game. I also admit, looking at the schedule, I have a hard time believing we will win more than 6 games, based on the Army performance. And, I do not want to say that everything will be fine when Persa returns.

PSYCHOLOGY

For a long time (I’ve been an NU fan for just over 11 years now) I have refused to truly believe that NU has some kind of psychological roadblock when playing as favorites. This game, unfortunately, changed my thinking as it was clear that the ‘Cats just couldn’t get things together mentally despite having larger and generally more talented players. And it’s not like anything Army did was a surprise: they came out and did the same thing they’ve been doing on both offense and defense, and the ‘Cats had been preparing for this since the spring.

As some others have noted, I think this was especially evident on defense, where they looked competent at times (particularly later in the third quarter) but other times inexplicably broke down despite having guys where they needed them. What really showed was when Steelman got 2-3 extra yards almost every time he was tackled mostly due to a hesitation by the tackler that allowed him to get moving forward for more yards. I agree with the over-thinking hypothesis because I think we saw the same thing the year when McCall came on board on offense where the QB and receivers just didn’t click at times.

TALENT LEVEL

We’ve been told that NU’s recruiting has gotten better and NU has more depth than ever. But this game showed me that this isn’t really that true; while the ‘Cats may have more depth (demonstrated by the young guys now starting) they couldn’t use that to their advantage against Army. The fact is that NU’s academic restrictions (which I am in no way advocating changing) prevent NU from compiling talent at the same level as the powerhouses. This means that NU must get the planets to align in order to rise to a conference championship (getting a bunch of experienced senior starters in one year along with some other teams having down years). Fortunately Fitz has seemingly raised the floor a bit, but it is unrealistic to expect NU to compete for championships year in and year out.