Road Warriors
By Lake The Posts on
The ‘Cats have amassed one of the best road records in the nation since the start of the 2008 season. The flip side is we’re not nearly as good at home. What gives and what can YOU do about it? Call to action – here.
The concept of Northwestern being a better road team than a home team among this readership hardly classifies as news. It has been somewhat well-documented Northwestern is 10-3 on the road since the start of the 2008 season in all games. When you dig a little further you find we are 7-2 in the Big Ten (3-1 non-conference) during that same span. On the flip side since 2008 at Ryan Field NU is just 4-6 in Big Ten play since the start of 2008. You can dress the Ryan Field home record up rather nicely by adding the 8-0 non-conference mark since the start of the ’08 season which makes the overall home field record 12-6 during that span. Of course, the overall 22-9 regular season mark since the start of 2008 season is the most impressive state-of-recent success program buiding stat out there. Let’s peel it back, shall we?
First, the Ryan Field home record. As stated it is 12-6 since the start of ’08. The non-conference 8-0 mark during that span is hardly the stuff to pound your chest about. The ‘Cats wins – in order – are – (2008) Syracuse, Southern Illinois, Ohio (2009) Towson, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH) 2010 Illinois State and Central Michigan. ‘Nufff said. The last ‘Cats non-conference loss was the (I can’t believe I’m mentioning it) Duke debacle on September 15, 2007 (20-14 heartbreaker). For those of us in attendance during those games, we can attest the home field “advantage” played far less of a role than the quality of the opponent. The good news is that has all changed as Northwestern formally announced last night on NUSports.com that both the Iowa and Illinois games are soldout. Enter transition to how you can help – but first…
The Big Ten home record of 4-6 since the start of the 2008 season. Put another way, 2/3 of our 9 total regular season losses in the past 2.5 seasons have been Big Ten home games. Let’s hit the painful reminder button on the six losses:
- 2010 – #7 Michigan State 35-27, Purdue 20-17
- 2009 – #12 Penn State 34-13, Minnesota 35-24
- 2008 – #12 Ohio State 45-10, #23 Michigan State 37-20
Obviously, four of the six losses during that span are ranked teams. We were ranked by one poll heading in to the Purdue game and I believe favored only in the Purdue game of the six (need to double-check that Minnesota opener in ’09). If you’re a fan of historical trends, then you’ll love the fact we’re 2-2 in Big Ten home games in ’08 and ’09 which would mean winning our next two would be consistent with the trend (a stretch of epic proportions I know – not the wins – the trend having relevance). The four Big Ten wins during that time?
- 2009 – #17 Wisconsin 33-31, Indiana 30-28
- 2008 -Illinois 27-10, Purdue 48-26
OK, not exactly world beaters based on opponent, and of the above I’d give both the Wisconsin and Illinois games a slight home field advantage as the crowds were pretty jacked in those games and in particular the Wisconsin upset you could feel the team feeding off of the energy. Again, these were both late afternoon games that went in to the night which helped contribute to the electricity (and directly contradicted by this year’s Purdue egg-laying).
Now, let’s get to the Wildcataganda of the 10-3 road record since the start of 2008. In reverse order, here is every win and loss:
2010 - W @Minnesota 29-28, W @Rice 30-13, W @ Vanderbilt 23-21
2009 – W @ Illinois 21-16, W @ #4 Iowa 17-10, L @ Michigan State 24-14, W @Purdue 27-21, L @Syracuse 37-34
2008 - W @ Michigan 21-14, W @ #25 Minnesota 24-17, L @ Indiana 21-19, W @ Iowa 22-17, W @ Duke 24-20
If you want the definition of the ‘Cats playing to the level of the opponent, look no further than behind the 10-3 road record. Think about this. Northwestern over the course of 2 and a half seasons has only 3 losses inclusive of every Big Ten game. Those three losses are to a bad 2008 Indiana team, a bad 2009 Syracuse train and an average Michigan State team. While we certainly won our fair share of super tight games, you realize how in reach 12-1 on the road could be since the start of 2008. The 10-3 overall road record is somewhat ridiculous when put in to national context. The company NU is in for total road wins since the start of the 2008 season reads like a BCS bowl bid party:
1)Boise State 15-0
2)TCU 12-2
3)Utah 12-3
4)USC 12-4
5)Cincinnati 12-4
6)Alabama 11-1
7)TIEDNorthwestern 10-3, Texas 10-1, Oregon 10-4 and Georgia Tech 10-5
Your cynical and calling Wildcataganda on me. I get it. My first instinct when unearthing this gem in the NU game notes (Kudos Mike Wolf and team!) was the fact it was slanted by NU playing more non-conference road games than other BCS schools. Again, remember that this includes opponents ALL road games. The ranking is nearly the same when you rank by win percentage. Check it out:
1)Boise State 15-0 (100%)
2)Alabama 11-1 (91.7%)
3)Texas 10-1 (90.9%)
4)Florida 9-1 (90%)
5)TCU 12-2 (85.7%)
6)Utah 12-3 (80%)
7)Missouri 7-2 (77.8%) – note – remarkable Mizzou has had only 9 total road games since beginning of ’08!
8)Northwestern 10-3 (76.9%)
9)USC 12-4 (75%)
10)Cincinnati 12-4 (75%)
I don’t need to tell you the above is veritable cornucopia of Wildcataganda. Did you know since the start of the ’08 season Northwestern has only 1 less road win than Alabama? Go ahead – mix and match and reposition to your heart’s content. “We’re tied with Texas and Oregon for road wins (10) since the start of the ’08 season”.
I can geek out all day on this stuff, but I’ve yet to provide a rationale explanation for the success. Could it be we feed off of packed houses, the underdog mentality and relish the “us against the world” approach? Are there too many distractions the week of home games? Is it simply the match-ups within the given year? Is it simply random? I’d love to go in-depth with Dan Persa, Fitz and other players as to their theories on this. The white elephant in the room is that Ryan Field hasn’t been much of a home field advantage.
Yes, Saturday was electric at Ryan Field. However, the embarassment of 18,000 Spartan fans actually becoming a nuisance on third down situations in our own building is unacceptable. Big time recruit Miles Shuler gave the NU official visit rave reviews and cited the win would’ve been the icing on the cake and made the weekend a “10″ (he ranked it an 8.8). He walked away extremely impressed, loves Fitz, loves the coaches and loved the gameday experience (see my rationale on I’ll take a full house with 60/40 NU vs a 95% NU but 20,000 empty seats recruiting theory). I would argue while I can’t explain the road success, I can say that a packed Ryan Field could contribute to .5 – 1.5 wins per year. A series of key third downs that cause communication problems for opposing QBs. A timely delay of game or false start penalty (I believe we caused one on Saturday). The intangible of incredible momentum and energy feeding of the players off of the crowd. It matters. Big time.
Finally, here is the call to action. Over-the-top kudos to Jim Phillips and Northwestern for getting the university to invest in his vision. As mentioned above, we sold out the Iowa game and the Wrigley game – no matter how you slice it – our last two home games of the year. Yes, I’m convinced it will be a true home game at Wrigley, but that’s not the point. It is October and Northwestern is formally pushing for season ticket reservations for 2011 NOW. I’m told the 2011 schedule is coming out extremely soon, but due to the Big Ten reorg, the trickle down effect of the Rice home game needing to move meant serious shuffling. Now that we are sold out the rest of the season at home (see how I did that?) NU obviously wants very much to flaunt the schedule for new season ticket holders. We know Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Minnesota and Eastern Illinois are set (and in terms of name power to new season ticket holders – likely in that order despite Michigan’s fall from grace). We need to work together NOW to ramp up ticket sales.
Imagine Michigan State winning the Big Ten and going to the BCS. Now imagine they can only get 5,000 tickets for 2011. Imagine Saturday being nearly all purple because every reader here simply recruited 1 new season ticket holder to buy a pair. When I launched this blog in 2007, this was the dream. A program that went bowling every year and made runs at Big Ten titles. We’re still in the build, but we’re getting closer (I think?). It is extremely rare for us to have built up the momentum to a point we we can say “all home games the rest of the way are sold out” and if we can somehow beat Indiana and Penn State to return home 7-2, dear God is this a once in a generation opportunity to finally reclaim the magic of Ryan/Dyche from ’95-’98. Those home close games go our way, the program continues to rise and life is grand. I can taste it.
I’m trying to work with NU to figure out a way how I can use LTP to make this happen and directly tie it to new sales. Stay tuned, but in the meantime, I need you to step up and become a salesperson to just one NEW buyer of 2 season tickets. Let’s do it…
Speaking of Miles Shuler, it’s pretty neat to see the Northwestern logo next to the Gators on the his recruiting profile…
http://rivals.yahoo.com/njvarsity/football/recruiting/player-Miles-Shuler-85034
It looks like the 5 logos on the recruiting profile are chosen randomly from his list of schools. The first time I visited, the Florida icon was up, but not the NU icon. The second time, it was the other way around. Nonetheless, NU is in the group “medium interest” schools (nothing is rated higher than “medium” so far).
The area they should flaunt the most is where my seats are: the endzone. Take away the Wrigley game, and my tickets were NINETY-FIVE BUCKS! We get 5 games for the price that some people get for 2 game or less. My uncle and I have met maybe 3 or 4 other season ticket holders in that endzone and that’s where most of the opposing fans end up going, especially the college students from the opposing school who road trip and just want to spend money on beer and football (presuming they’re from the area or know someone in the area). I painfully admit that it gets a little intimidating when you’re STH and you out numbered 100-1. Is the view great? For the price you can’t beat it. I think if you can promote the low price on our season tickets in the endzone, that way you’re at least 50/50 everywhere in the stadium.
My young alumni seats were in the endzone back in 2006. There’s a reason I moved to the west side in 2007 and paid full price, forgoing 4 more years of young alumni rates (and it wasn’t just having to suffer through the cigar smoke of several Ohio State fans).
But as far as bargain, it’s pretty damn cheap.
Nice pic on Syd… The dude got mad ups.
TICKET PRICES
Yes, end zone seats at Ryan Field are cheap, but, heck, even good seats are MUCH cheaper than basically every other Big Ten school. A regular priced season ticket this season for 5 games (without Wrigley, of course) was $164. That is significantly less than an equivalent seat at basically every other Big Ten school, and that’s without considering “voluntary” donations required to get the right to buy tickets at most other schools (AND you can get still get in on great seats at Ryan Field instead of starting out in the corner of the upper deck).
I am also really happy about Phillips’ job drumming up attendance and believe that it can be sustained. Yes, Wrigley is a one-time thing, but I believe more fans will stick around than one would expect and the upcoming schedules aren’t that bad.
@LTP
In the second paragraph, the sentence should read: “The last ‘Cats non-conference HOME loss was the (I can’t believe I’m mentioning it) Duke debacle…”
Since the beginning of ’08, NU has lost only 2 home games as the favorite, this year’s Purdue game (NU -11) and last year’s Minnesota game (NU -2.5). NU was the underdog in the other 4 losses listed above.
Regarding Missouri’s low number of road games, the Tigers play neutral site games against both Illinois and Kansas.
Adam Rittenberg picks the ‘Cats to win, 34-33, referencing Fitz’ ability to win on the road.
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/18669/page/thursday-predictions/big-ten-predictions-week-9
In other news on Adam’s blog, NU leads the Big Ten (and ranks second nationally to That School In South Bend) in Graduation Success Rate. The top three in the Big Ten (in percentages):
NU 95
PSU 84
Iowa 79
While I think part of our apparent road success has to do with luck of scheduling, I also think that it must have to do with focus. Whatever the team’s routine is for road games, it seems to have the players more “ready to play” than whatever their routine for home games is. Couple that with the lack of home field advantage at Ryan Field, and there’s your discrepency.
Also, if we’ve been “upset” at home only twice in this time span, how many times have we been upset on the road? Perhaps thats a better comparison…
When we were talking about the fact that NU was just a 6 point dog against MSU someone cited the home field advantage (normally 3-4 pts). I thought at the time that there is if anything a home field disadvantage and our record at home pretty much proves it. In addition to the bad losses there are the late game collapses which also seem to occur at home more than away. I think there is a logical reason and that is that there is so much pressure on this program to play better and to prove that they belong in the Big Ten and that pressure is even more at home. And the expectations might also be a little too high at home just as they usually are too low on the road for a team like NU. This is BTW is not uncommon in other sports like baseball where the local scrutiny can be great when expectations are not met. New York, Chicago, Boston and Philadelphia are very tough and I’m sure players often don’t mind getting out of town if the team isn’t doing well. Getting back to our favorite team playing at home means not wanting to disappoint while playing out of town means lower expectations, no pressure to look good before the home crowd and maybe you play a bit looser and last but not least maybe the opposition underestimates you and you sneak out with a win you shouldn’t have gotten. Our record is what it is. We lose at home when we should win and we are a lot tougher on the road anyone realizes. Gary Barnett had it right when said that the team has to expect to win. When you expect to win you win games like MSU that were there for the taking and the pressure starts to goe away and the home record gets a lot better.
Anyone wondering how Stanford, the NU equivalent on the West Coast, is doing with attendance? You might find this interesting . . . especially because Stanford has been ranked in the top 205 since Week Two of the season . . . and had a half full stadium at homecoming. Check out this blog: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2010/10/24/cal-stanford-and-sjsu-football-i-tried-watching-but-was-distracted-by-all-the-empty-seats/
Or if you want to cut to the chase, here are the relevant passages:
Cal, Stanford and SJSU football: I tried watching but was distracted by all the empty seats
Posted by Jon Wilner on October 24th, 2010 at 8:24 am | Categorized as Cal football, San Jose State football, Stanford football
* Stanford announced 36,679 for Homecoming, which was hugely misleading. I’m not sure the 50,000-seat stadium was even half full — and the head coach noticed.
“Our fans didn’t even bother coming to the game today,” Jim Harbaugh said.
Note: The Cardinal’s official attendance figures are based on tickets distributed (and remember, some of the tickets are distributed for free). As a result, its announced crowds often grossly overstate the turnstile count.
NorCalCat, thanks for posting. I think that has likely been a common slam on Northwestern out west, so for NU to actually be out-drawing Stanford isn’t a small deal.
Speaking of Stanford and Miles Shuler…
What do people think our chances are of landing him? At least on Rivals it only lists Stanford as an upcoming official visit. Is he just looking at Stanford and NU or are all 7 of his options open?
I think this would be a great get because 1. This kid is awesome at football and super fast. 2. Seems like a good, smart guy if he’s looking at NU and Stanford. 3. We have lost a fair number of recruits over the last few years to Stanford and it would be nice to start turning the tide (also nice to get him over Florida, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa, etc. etc. etc.)
Unfortunately for us Stanford plays Oregon State on the weekend of his visit and, even though OSU is solid, I could imagine Stanford blowing them out. If the outcome of the game is really what affected Miles this past weekend, perhaps it will help Stanford to get a big win. At least Illinois is a heck of a lot closer to NJ than California.
I’ve gone on way too long about a topic I know little about. Any comments or further insight would be appreciated!
The 2011 and 2012 schedules have been announced:
http://nusports.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102810aac.html
The only change is the Rice game for 2011 is now November 12th, so it was just moved up 2 weeks. Glad they got that worked out.
2011 homecoming, as previously “announced,” will be against Penn State on 10/22. 2012 homecoming will be against Iowa on 10/27.
Dare to dream? Nov 26, 2011: MSU 11-0, NU 11-0: ESPN game day in Evanston.
This day just keeps getting better:
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/10/nu-to-renovate-develop-new-athletic-facilities.html
No game in 2011 with all students back until October 8? Yikes.
Whatever the composition of the 11-12 schedules, the Non Conference, is weak, and should the Cats truly be a Top 20 level team next year in Danny Persa’s Senior Season, the SOS, is going to be dragged down… A home non-conference slate of EIU and Rice, has gotta be, one of the weakest in BCS Conference contenders next year…
Finally, could not help but notice the happy talk and self congratulatory tone of a Press Release from 10/27 from the Athletic Department on nusports.com with the news that The Iowa and Illinois games are “SOLD OUT!”… Congrats guys… 25K in Black and Gold at Ryan– coupled, with 15K in Orange and Blue, plus another 10K at Wrigley, who could care less if it were NU game, or an Elton John Concert… One would hope, both games would be sold out… Easier, than a Demos Field goal…
Ok, so granted Miles Shuler did say that his visit to NU was an 8.8/10, but his personal website still doesnt have NU ranked as “one of his favorite colleges” Should I be as bummed out as I am? Maybe he hasnt updated it yet?
http://nationalunderclassmen.ning.com/profile/MilesShuler
And here’s the release:
http://nusports.cstv.com/genrel/102810aaa.html
Bottom line:
-They’ll review every athletics facility on Central St. and on campus to figure out how they fit into the future, what needs to be done, what else is needed, and what gets priority.
-They’ll survey students, faculty, and staff on how they perceive the facilities as part of the early stage.
-The master plan draft will be ready in the spring, at which point it will be presented to the public and open meetings will be held to get feedback at various locations on campus.
Pretty exciting.
@Wisco
Not a bad thing. That means only 1 home game without students next season.
Mike, that’s possibly 2 games without students. We have games on Thanksgiving weekend at home the next 2 seasons. No telling how many students are going to show up for those.
On the bright side, I’d hope that a lot of students take advantage of it being early in the quarter and head down to Champaign on October 1st for the game against Illinois.
I can’t believe that two of NU’s away games (Army and BC) next year are easy driving distance for me in SW CT. There are probably at least as many NU alums in the greater NYC area as there are in the Chicago metro area so it makes sense playing in the northeast. Syracuse is however not a place I care to go to and I don’t really see why NU wants to play a home and home with them other than the fact they are private. It seems like we want to play all the better big time football playing private universities but Notre Dame and So. California are conspicuously absent.
@Henry in CT:
I believe NU has done a good job scheduling, trying to get home-and-homes against similar institutions (academic-focused BCS conference schools). The reason that ND and USC are not on there is because there is no way either would agree to a home-and-home with NU, so it won’t happen.
@NorCalCat:
I ran the statistics for Stanford last year and after their stadium reconstruction they have seen a significant drop in attendance. They got a small bump last year during a successful run, but as you mentioned they aren’t faring that well this year despite being ranked for the whole year. Just building/renovating a stadium alone won’t bring in fans. I believe NU is doing this the right way and has really bumped up the marketing and the results are clear.
BTW, this year’s average attendance is shaping up to be the best since 1998 (when it was 40,097).
I was pleased to be at last week’s Homecoming game. It was great marching with the NUMBALUMs in the parade and again at halftime. It was also great to get together with SpiriTeam alums as well (I was a Spirit Leader during the Dark Times.)
Talking with other NUMBALUMs, some of them would like to go to the games with their kids, but cannot afford it for various reasons. I’d like to see some sort of season ticket plan that takes families with kids into account. It’d be great to see an offer for one/two parents and 1+ kids. There is a market for an inexpensive endzone seating plan. And it would be a win-win situation – you get more purple in the seats, you sell a bunch of seats that would otherwise go empty, and you foster family outings for people who would like to see the games on a regular basis, but who cannot afford the regular prices.
Go Cats!
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