Northwestern (7-2,3-2) vs Michigan (6-3, 4-1)

GAMEDAY INFO
Date: November 10, 2012
Kickoff: 11:00 am ct
Location: Michigan Stadium (106,201) – Ann Arbor, MI 
All-time Series:  Michigan 53-15-2 In Ann Arbor: Michigan 33-6-2
Trends: ‘Cats looking to win back-to-back games in the Big House for the first time since 1934 & 1936.
Favored Team: Michigan (-9.5)
TV: ESPN – PXP – Dave Pasch, Color – Brian Griese, SL Jenn Brown 
Radio: WGN 720 AM – PXP – Dave Eanet, Color – Ted Albrecht; Sirius Radio Channel 92, XM Radio 196; WNUR 89.3 FM (student station) 
Twitter: @NU_SportsLIVE 
Coaching Stats: NU – Pat Fitzgerald (7th year – 47-38, 24-29) vs Brady Hoke (2nd year – 17-5,10-3 ) 
Weather Forecast: Rain in morning, 60% chance, winds S 10-15 mph, high 62

2-Minute Drill

You know it and I know it. There isn’t a Michigan fan who thinks they’re going to lose this game. They don’t believe in Northwestern. The fact this game is essentially an elimination game for the loser in their race to catch Nebraska seems to be underplayed. Sure, the odds don’t look good of Nebraska dropping two of their final three, but stranger things have happened. The ‘Cats are trying to get their first ever win under Fitz after a bye week and are still riding high after Kain Colter’s scintillating performance in a convincing win over Iowa.  There is a giant question mark relating to Michigan’s Mr. Everything, Denard Robinson, who dressed but sat in last week’s win over Minnesota. The ‘Cats are prepping to play against both Robinson, a rushing genius, and Devin Gardner, a dangerous passer. Conversely, Northwestern hopes to use the impressive ground game to challenge one of the best overall defenses in the country. Michigan doesn’t give up points and the ‘Cats have been stellar against the run. You get the sense 20 points will win this game.

Headlines I’d Like To See On Sunday:

• “‘Cats, Colter Outduel Michigan and Robinson in Big House”
• “Mark; ‘Cats rushing “D” leads ‘Cats to upset over Michigan”
• “‘Cats Find Passing Game & Road Win; Still In Division Hunt”

 

WHEN NORTHWESTERN HAS THE BALL

Let’s hope we don’t overthink this one. Kain Colter and Venric Mark should be expecting to replicate the gameplan against Iowa. Michigan, an outstanding pass defense (#1 in FBS), struggles against dual threat running QBs.  The Michigan interior line has been challenged this year, but stud LB Jake Ryan has been a manchild for the Wolverines. It’s deceiving, but Michigan is weak at the corners and you can bet they will be cheating against the run and playing the odds that NU can’t beat them over the top. Simply put, Kain Colter will have to make some downfield passes in this one for us to get the “w”. Colter has completed 70% of his passes this year, but McCall has severely limited his pass attempts.

Based on the weakness at corner, I do expect to see Trevor worked in to this game, but let’s hope we don’t get suckered in to a Nebraska-like gameplan where we let Michigan dictate our offense. The key to Northwestern’s success this season has been getting in to a flow early and moving the chains. In our two losses, the common denominator was a slew of three and outs early that put our “D” on the field way too often. I expect to see more of Mike Trumpy as well in this game as his limited touches of late have been impressive and I can see some screen passes to both Trumpy and Dan Vitale this week, an element absent most of this year.

When Michigan Has The Ball

Like Northwestern fans, all eyes will be on trying to ID who is at QB. Will it be Denard or Devin? The Wolverines average 200 ypg on the ground and just 179 ypg in the air. Denard Robinson is really the only factor in the ground game for Michigan and after watching MarQueis Gray have his way with us earlier this year, we’ll need to really bring it to do what so few schools have done and contain him. That is, if he’s healthy. Michigan tends to always make SportsCenter highlight catches against us and Devin Gardner throwing downfield to the likes of undersized, but super-athletic Jeremy Gallon and Drew Dileo.

The ‘Cats need to do what they did against Iowa and that is get them to third down early and often. The Wolverines are an extremely well coached team and have been almost invincible in Michigan Stadium under Brady Hoke.  The big question mark on the NU side is whether or not CBs Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans will return. The personnel in NU’s secondary may very well dictate the offensive gameplan for Al Borges and Michigan. As evidenced in Evanston last year, Robinson can be erratic when going deep, but make no mistake about it, if Robinson is on the field, it will come down to the ‘Cats front seven stepping up and limiting explosion plays against arguably the most dynamic athlete in all of college football.

Intangibles:

The ‘Cats ended a 67-game streak of having at least one takeaway when they came  up empty (albeit, they did get a blocked punt) against Iowa. The ‘Cats 12 fumble recoveries are near the top of all of the FBS (4th) and you get the sense they’ll need to continue their turnover margin ways to escape in a hostile Big Ten road environment with a win. The ‘Cats have fared much better in the B1G on the road under Fitz going 16-9 and also are 10-5 in November since the start of ’08 season. Weather could come in to play with high winds expected on an unseasonably warm day with a good chance of rain during the game.

Lake The Posts Factor (0=so certain you can DVR and watch late night, 10=running to Ryan Field, ripping down FG posts and marching them in to Lake Michigan): 9.0

When you’ve only won 6 times in a venue in more than a century, any win here is a big win. Consider the fact it would put NU in a realistic spot to run the B1G table and perhaps even beat out Nebraska, and well, you get it, this is big. Add on the annoying but true fact that beating the name Michigan turns heads and you’ve got a 9.0 on the LTP scale.

Pick To Click:

Dean Lowry – I’m hoping the freshman DE continues his impressive ways and creates havoc for whomever Brady Hoke puts under center. Lowry is one of the 20 or so reasons NU fans should be absolutely excited for the 2013 season and with B1G sack leader Tyler Scott getting all the attention, I’m hoping #94 can have a breakout game.

Head to Head Stat Pack – 2012 averages

TALE OF THE TAPE

(2012 STATISTICS)

Northwestern                                                                             Michigan

30.4………………………….Scoring Per Game………………………28.8

22.3………………….Scoring Defense Per Game………………16.8

21.9……………………..First Downs Per Game………………….18.7

236.4………………….Rushing Yards Per Game…………….. 200.9

5.3……………………..Average Per Rush……………………..5.0

24………………………….Rushing Touchdowns………………………19

162.3…………………. Passing Yards Per Game…………….. 178.4

7……………………………. Passing Touchdowns………………………11

398.8…………………..Total Offense Per Game……………… 379.3

15.9…………………..Kick Return Average………………..22.4

21.0……………………….Punt Return Average……………………..8.9

6……………………………………Fumbles Lost………………………………. 3

3…………………………… Interceptions Thrown……………………..15

+6…………………………….. Turnover Margin…………………………..-4

5.9……………………….Penalites Per Game……………………………5.3

57.4……………………..Penalty Yards Per Game……….50.9

46%…………………..Third-Down Conversions………………48%

33%………………….Fourth-Down Conversions……………..67%

12-13……………………..Field Goal Attempts………………….14-17

38.1……………………….Net Punting Average………………….35.9

 32-35 (91%)…………………..Red Zone Scores…………28-31 (90%)

 

Stats to Stew On:

• Tracking Venric Mark – Mark is now the 15th rusher in NU history to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark with 1,072 rushing yards. His 119.7 ypg average is 10th in the FBS and 2nd in the B1G. He is tied with Braxton Miller for best in the B1G with 6 100+ games this season.  Venric is tops in the B1G and 6th in the country in all purpose yards per game with 184 ypg. Venric is 6th alltime at NU in career all purpose yards and just 350 from Ricky Edwards at #5.
• Kain Colter’s 3 rushing TDs last game catapulted him to 7th in single season rushing TDs at NU with 12. Damien Anderson is the leader with 22.
• The NU fifth year senior class has already set a record for most wins in five years with 37.
• NU is 22-3 since ’09 when they outrush opponents.
• The ‘Cats have scored in double figures in 69 consecutive games
• NU is 33-11 under Fitz when they score first.

SURVEY SAYS…

Which Michigan QB Would You Rather Face?

Predictions

PRR: This game just feels weird. Northwestern and Michigan have not quite established clear identities. The Wolverines have relied so heavily on Denard Robinson that it is weird to see them playing against a quality defense and succeeding without him. He is that much of a weapon. Devin Gardner is not someone Northwestern should overlook. For the Wildcats, the team is seeking its identity with Kain Colter as the quarterback after that two quarterback experiment in the mid season. Northwestern does well late in the season and I think the bye week came at the perfect time to help the secondary recoup a bit and to get this team to settle down. The Wildcats need a big upset win to add to their bowl resume.

Northwestern 21, Michigan 20

LTP: Somehow this game is lacking the big game buzz I feel it should have. I’m tired of being underdogs based on program perception and a BCS ranked Wildcat team is a 9.5 dog in Ann Arbor against the unranked Wolverines. Michigan has been one dimensional on offense as it has been the Denard Robinson rushing show this season. The defense has bailed them out all season long, but Denard’s health is a major question mark for this game. Meanwhile, Kain Colter helped NU define its identity last week as NU again played a stellar three quarters. They’ll need all four to beat Michigan as I expect a defensive blueprint that mirrors Penn State and Nebraska. Colter will have to complete some passes to open things up and I’m confident he can do it. The ‘Cats get that signature win they so badly need.

Northwestern 23 Michigan 17

And Jack Marshall’s pick…

That says Northwestern 28, Michigan 24. Jack always has our back!

Other Games to Watch

Syracuse (4-5) hosts No. 11 Louisville at 11 a.m. CT on ABC. Syracuse lost to Cincinnati 35-24 last week giving up 21 points in the second half and 14 unanswered after taking a 24-21 lead in the third quarter. Ryan Nassib continues to tear it up for Syracuse, passing for 286 yards and a touchdown last Saturday. That could be key as Nassib keeps his team in any game. Particularly in the Carrier Dome, where the undefeated Cardinals travel this week.

Vanderbilt (5-4) travels to Mississippi at 6 p.m. CT on ESPNU. The Commodores got a 40-0 win over Kentucky last week to get one win closer to bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt has turned things around after a rough start to the season, including that NU loss. Ole Miss is not an easy team to play but the opportunity is out there for Vanderbilt to do it this week.

Boston College (2-7) hosts No. 4 Notre Dame at 7 p.m. CT on ABC. Boston College lost 28-14 to Wake Forest last week to continue its disappointing season. Does anyone have any hope of the Eagles upsetting the Irish?

South Dakota (1-8) hosts Northern Iowa at 12 p.m. CT. South Dakota lost to Youngstown State last week 13-10, giving up 203 rushing yards to Jamaine Cook of YSU.

Looking Ahead to 2013

California (3-7) hosts No. 2 Oregon at 9:30 p.m. CT on ESPN. California lost last Friday to Washington 21-13. The Golden Bears got 160 rushing yards from running back C.J. Anderson.

Western Michigan (4-6) travels to Buffalo at 2:30 p.m. CT. The Broncos defeated Central Michigan 42-31 behind Tyler van Tubbergen’s 362 yards passing and four touchdowns.

Maine (3-6) hosts Georgia State at 1 p.m. CT. James Madison defeated Maine 31-7 last week.