Northwestern (6-4, 3-3) at Illinois (3-6, 2-5)
GAMEDAY INFO
Date: November 14, 2009
Time: 11:02 am ct
Location: Memorial Stadium (62,870) - Champaign, IL
GAMEDAY INFO
Date: November 14, 2009
Time: 11:02 am ct
Location: Memorial Stadium (62,870) - Champaign, IL
TV: ESPN Classic
Radio: WGN-720 AM (Dave Eanet & Ted Albrecht), WNUR 89.3 FM
Line: Illinois by 4.5
Coaching Stats: Northwestern - Pat Fitzgerald (4th year - 25-22, 13-17) vs Ron Zook (5th year -21-36, 12-27)
2-Minute Drill
It's amazing how the roller-coaster ride can change isn't it? A week ago, NU was desperately clinging to a season that was headed towards major disappointment and .500-ville and the Illinois has snapped a season-long funk. This week, NU looks to springboard off of the biggest win of the season and Fitz's young career, but all of a sudden the Illini look resurgent having won two straight. The Big Ten theme of the year - dinged-up starting QBs - continues as the Illini will be starting freshman Jacob Charest, who has gained significant minutes and confidence in recent weeks having led the Illini to victory in the wake of Juice Williams' ankle injury. Mike Kafka will get the start for NU and despite the reports from Fitz that he is completely fine, 'Cats fans are excited to learn that back-up Dan Persa is apparently good to go as well.
Line: Illinois by 4.5
Coaching Stats: Northwestern - Pat Fitzgerald (4th year - 25-22, 13-17) vs Ron Zook (5th year -21-36, 12-27)
2-Minute Drill
It's amazing how the roller-coaster ride can change isn't it? A week ago, NU was desperately clinging to a season that was headed towards major disappointment and .500-ville and the Illinois has snapped a season-long funk. This week, NU looks to springboard off of the biggest win of the season and Fitz's young career, but all of a sudden the Illini look resurgent having won two straight. The Big Ten theme of the year - dinged-up starting QBs - continues as the Illini will be starting freshman Jacob Charest, who has gained significant minutes and confidence in recent weeks having led the Illini to victory in the wake of Juice Williams' ankle injury. Mike Kafka will get the start for NU and despite the reports from Fitz that he is completely fine, 'Cats fans are excited to learn that back-up Dan Persa is apparently good to go as well.
Every game is a huge game in conference play, but this game now becomes a true springboard game for NU to finish the season strongly and remove any doubt about going to a bowl game. Last week's win over Iowa ensured bowl eligibility, however, NU was bowl eligible in '07 and stayed home. Equally as important is regaining some program momentum that seemingly disappeared early in the season with mediocre play across the board making the 9-win 2008 season seem as distant as the Illini's lone winning season under Ron Zook in 2007.
Expect the Illini to run early and often against the 'Cats. It is no secret the Illini possess big play playmakers like Rejus Benn, Jeff Cumberland and the like, but I expect the Jason Ford/Michael Leshoure RB combo to get a lot of action as Charest settles in to the starting role. The Illini boast the nation's 25th best rushing attack at 188 ypg, but are a dismal 99th in passing offense at 181 ypg, however the bulk of those stats were based on Juice Williams being at the helm. As I said yesterday, I expect the same gameplan as Michigan State, which struggled early with the run, but used it to tee-up the play action which killed us. Charest is a solid, confident pocket QB, who threw for a very respectable 10-19, 185 yds 1 TD, O Int game, but has escaped several INTs in the process. I expect Hankwitz to test him a little early, but rely on the 3 and 4 man rush to collapse the pocket. The Illini surrender sacks-a-plenty, ranking 109th in sacks allowed with 3 per game, but again, that stat is slanted due to the volume of rushing attempts Juice Williams makes when he's behind center.
On offense, expect NU to dink and dunk to their hearts' content as the Illini have struggled with short passing games all season. The Illini D will likely be blitzing like crazy early to test the mobility of Kakfa and try to build on their confidence-inducing 7 sack game against Minnesota last week. The D line is very improved and boasts some true challenges for an O-line that has been spotty at best. Let's hope when Persa gets the rock, McCall allows him to throw and rid the predictable playcalling patterns.
The Illini special teams are nothing to crow about, but then again, neither are ours. If the game comes down to FGs, you've got to like the 'Cats chances.
The Game Will Be Won...
By red zone play. Both teams lack scoring punch, yet the Illini have been much more explosive in the past two weeks. Northwestern has struggled all season long to convert long drives into 7 points and will need to jump out in this one to really challenge Charest and give Hankwitz some options on aggressive playcalling.
The Game Will Be Won...
By red zone play. Both teams lack scoring punch, yet the Illini have been much more explosive in the past two weeks. Northwestern has struggled all season long to convert long drives into 7 points and will need to jump out in this one to really challenge Charest and give Hankwitz some options on aggressive playcalling.
Stats to Stew On...
The 'Cats have won 5 of 6 in this series and are 9-5 vs the Illini since 1995 - the most total wins against any Big Ten opponent during that span.
Lake The Posts Factor: 7
I was surprised I didn't see the goal posts erected in Lake Michigan last week after the Iowa upset. Today, the 9.9 LTP factor from last week gets cranked back a couple of dials, despite the Land of Lincoln rivalry. Make no mistake about it, this is a huge game and momentum builder, but relative to beating the #4 undefeated Hawkeyes who were 17 point favorites, it is not a 9.9.
Pick to Click: Vince Browne
If 'Cats actually read this blog they likely shreik when they see their name come up as Pick to Click. I've been way off every game and it's borderline SI Jinx-ish. So, I'll go with Vince Browne today in hopes that Corey continues his improving ways and perhaps Sherrick comes up with yet another game-changing INT.
LTP Prediction
Northwestern 23 Illinois 20
LTP Prediction
Northwestern 23 Illinois 20
Remember to send in your photos of the "N" flag flying in Champaign and bring back a victory!
5 comments:
I've got a bad feeling about this game. I don't like the statements about "Consistently Winning" made by Fitz during the week. Pride goes before a fall.
@Alvious -- I disagree. These guys need to believe that they're winners, that they're no longer "just Northwestern," that it's okay to go out and stomp on someone's throat simply because we're better than they are.
Cats 35 - Illini 7. The Defense and Wootton are back....
GO CATS!
If you're looking for the Game Day conversation on Sippin On Purple, his front page is screwed up. You need to click the "comments" button quickly to get thru to the live page
Great win, though way too scary at the end. Could we please lose the 3 man rush late? And why the 6 yard cushion on the wideouts with 4th and 2? Geez.
On the final int, why didn't the ESPNC announcers ever raise the issue of whether the ball was moving off the receiver's hands/chest as he fell to the turf? I was watching on an old (non-Hi Def) TV, but I thought I saw the ball moving slightly and therefore never either caught or dead until the great play by the DB.
Hinton, I was watching without sound in a bar with every other game on as well. (Being in Dallas, we got the sound for the Texas/Baylor game. Boy was that a nailbiter.) When they finally showed the opposite angle, I said the same thing. To me, the ball appeared to be coming out of The Illini player's hands as he rolled over on his back.
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