Northwestern has been maligned for most of this season for its marshmallow-y soft non-conference schedule. I’ve already gone to great lengths to give context for how this came to be, especially in the wake of Jim Harbaugh’s direct attack on NU for our schedule (I’ll note it again – an open date came up for 2010 when a BCS team backed-out of a game with Stanford and Mr. My-Schedule-Is-Too-Hard Harbaugh agreed to fill it with powerhouse Sacramento State). The quick version is football is archaic when it comes to scheduling as the Miami (OH), Syracuse and Eastern Michigan games were all scheduled prior to Fitz’s even being a head coach. At the time Syracuse was decent, Miami (OH) was actually good and Eastern was, well, the exception.
If you look ahead to schedules in 2014 right now you’ll see what appears to be one of the nation’s toughest schedules with opponents like Cal (home), Stanford and Vanderbilt (as the easiest) combined with the usual Big Ten fare. However, who the heck knows what those teams will be like in four seasons. Vandy could be the top 25 team by then and Stanford could be back to its 3-9 ways.
If you look ahead to schedules in 2014 right now you’ll see what appears to be one of the nation’s toughest schedules with opponents like Cal (home), Stanford and Vanderbilt (as the easiest) combined with the usual Big Ten fare. However, who the heck knows what those teams will be like in four seasons. Vandy could be the top 25 team by then and Stanford could be back to its 3-9 ways.
Jim Phillips has gone on record about his scheduling philosophy which essentially is a mix of trying to get seven home games (he calls it the 3-1 strategy) with an in-state FCS opponent, at least one like-minded academic oriented BCS program (ie. Stanford, Vanderbilt, BC, Duke, Wake) a mid-major and another BCS opponent that he can alter the home/away so as to keep the seven home games. You can check out our future schedules through 2014 here at NU historian extraordinaire blog, HailToPurple.
Next year is a scheduling quirk as we still have an open date - allegedly both Ohio and SMU have backed out in recent years. The ‘Cats open at Vanderbilt, which was scheduled during the Jay Cutler era, play home vs Illinois State (FCS in state) then venture to Rice which a year ago seemed like a good schedule (they went bowling) but now they look hapless again and then comes the quandry. September 25 is the open date vacated by Ohio and we also have an open date on October 16 as well - sandwiched between two Big Ten home games - Purdue and Michigan State. It's imperative we fill this date as an 11-game schedule simply is not an option for a program in today's day and age. My question is why not Boise State?
America's favorite CFB underdog has put the call out to all BCS teams. They'll play anywhere anytime and unlike most teams, will settle for a game at the BCS team's home venue without a return visit -there next open schedule date is 2013. Not many step up to the challenge, but a few have.
Granted, the schedule domino effect makes this highly unlikely for a 2010 date. Boise State is currently booked on both of those dates - on with a home game vs potential 2009 Rose Bowl entrant Oregon State on 9/25 and they also play at Virginia Tech (FedEx Field). They have two other non-conference games - home vs Toledo in their season opener on 9/11 and a road game at Wyoming on 9/18. They likely play a conference game on the other NU open date - 10/16 - but it is currently listed as TBA. Let's play along for a second and imagine Jim Phillips is able to make it worth Boise State's while and can impact their conference schedule. There are many in Boise State circles that believe the team will continue to be a top 5 BCS team and next year is the year to make their move with Oregon State and Virginia Tech on the schedule. To pull it off it would involve Boise getting out of BCS ranking killers Wyoming. That games is part of a home and homes so it would likely be a costly deal for NU. Perhaps Jim Phillips can get the boomerang karma for letting Miami (OH) to get out of their contract with us and we bent over backwards to reschedule other 2009 opponents to accommodate.
Let's pretend it could be pulled off for 2010. Despite the late season resurgence which is leading to "we won't have a dropoff next year thanks to Dan Persa and all the injuries which forced our younger guys to get quality minutes" conventional wisdom, I believe we will have a slight step back next year. However, that step back is likely in the 6-6, 7-5 range. Why not take advantage of the media blitz that would be Boise State coming to town? We could pinpoint this game to market and collectively work our asses off to make it a sellout. We could have some fun and paint the field purple. It would be the Big Ten's perennial underdog against the nation's perennial underdog. Hell, let's go for broke and play it at night to get some ESPN primetime love.
We'll likely be favored in all three other non-conference games and while playing a season opener at an SEC opponent - regardless of how weak they were this year - nothing will get the non-conference media attention like a Boise State unless we went down the absurd Florida, Texas, USC, Alabama route. Boise State has street cred at the same level, but from a different perspective. The curiosity factor of the smurf turfers coming to Evanston would indeed be a buzz builder. I truly believe it. We'd be underdogs, which we love, and therefore it really isn't a huge risk to the program. If we lose? So what, we'd be 3-1 in non-conference but be getting serious kudos from the opinion shapers for stepping up and playing tough games. The word is we've been working with Kansas State to try and get an all-Wildcats match-up, but that is the worst case scenario in schedule soup. Seriously, it would violate one of the LTP schedule commandments - never schedule a solid team with no name appeal that has zero alumni base in Chicago. What say you?
Stats To Stew On
Some final home attendance numbers for you to consider that would sway you're opinion to go big at home in scheduling. The comments on the blog are repeats - it is indeed a marketing problem first and foremost. I agree. It also helps that when you get 40,000 fans to attend you actually count them properly. I will be offering some Jim Phillips-friendly stats that support the irrational, yet true support that we indeed travel well to bowl games.
- Final Attendance Home Rank - #85 out of 120 - 24,190
- BCS programs with worse attendance - 1 - Washington State - 22,509 (rank #87)
- Home Attendance Rank By % Capacity - 108th! - Averaged 51.3% capacity
- Home Attendance Rank By Total - 71st - 169,332 - NOTE: 7 home games!
- Single Game High - 32,150 vs Wisconsin (yes, I believe it was 40,000 too!) ranks 448th of single game highs which accounts for every single game played
23 comments:
@LTP:
Regarding Boise State's schedule next year: Nevada is in their conference (WAC), so they can't get out of that "BCS killer" game as you called it.
Also, in stories earlier this year about Boise St. seeking a BCS conference foe, many were turned off by the high price of bringing them in to play, reportedly $1 million, which is a huge price for any team and something that NU couldn't afford.
Some non-conference opponents (think lower tier MAC or Sun Belt teams) cost between $500,000-$750,000 to bring in, and NU has been paying between $300,000-$500,000 to bring in recent FCS foes. $1M is a whole other league.
I agree that NU should try to bring in some name opponents for non-conference games, but breaking the bank is not a good idea. Also, NU is not in a position to avoid return trips to most teams and many teams are likely to flat out deny a trip to Evanston.
I would not be surprised at all to see Kansas State come up on the schedule despite the fact that it won't get a ton of local press. But, at least under Snyder they are a semi-respectable program in a BCS conference. Better than another helping of EMU.
Tulane is open on the same date we are in September. That would fit the "mid-major" team we are looking for. Also, we could schedule a post-thanksgiving return game in the future. Big Easy in December, anyone?
Love the idea of Boise State coming in. Let's assume the logistics work out for Boise State to come here one time and NU pays the $1 million. My guess, Kansas St would draw 20-25K, Boise State would draw 30-35K. 10K seats at 30$ each = $300K. Figure we would pay $700K for K-State anyway, the cost might break even. That doesn't include the concessions and other added bonuses. But would an extra 10K come in to see Boise St?
How much would a Big 12 / Pac 10 team pay to have NU play there? Maybe NU would make more money with a road trip. NU plays well on the road and unless it's a disaster like ASU 05, even a close loss to Oregon, Ok St, etc. would not look horrible.
I would rather see NU play a brutal schedule. They seem to play to their opponents level anyway, so you might as well play great teams.
That would be great.
We really should schedule more post-Thanksgiving games to Tulane, Rice, & Stanford/Cal/UCLA like we did those year-ending Miami games back in the '60's.
Just saw Alvious' comment... maybe we schedule Tulane in December like he says... then we stay in N'awlins for the month of December and go to the national championship game at the Superdome since NU will be playing in it.
Another note to Alvious -- keep dreading our games. Every time you post that you have a bad feeling NU wins. I expect you to have a bad feeling before the bowl game.... not that I'm superstitious ;).
@NUCats93:
I assume a Kansas State series would be a home-and-home meaning that I don't think the universities have payouts (or, if they do, it just covers travel expenses).
jhodges - My understanding is that payouts are still made immediately after each trip in case a team backs out of a home and home series before its complete.
But practically speaking, Northwestern wouldn't gain or lose money.
Ok, if the payouts are equal, then why not do a home and home with Boise State?
Non-conference schedules for 2011, 2012, and I believe 2013 are already pretty much set. 2014 has Vandy, Stanford, and Cal, so they're going to be looking for a non-BCS team there. It's just not really possible to do a home and home with Boise St. even if they wanted to.
What if we played Boise at a neutral site where they'd get major media market attention (Soldier Field)? Maybe that would be worth concessions they wouldn't make to go to the middle of nowhere.
Does somebody in the athletic department have a fetish for names that results in our playing other Wildcats (K-State, New Hampshire - gosh, that worked out great) or the Northeastern (moment of silence, please) Northwestern matchup that otherwise make no sense at all?
Burrowed in our rooting section in Champaign I saw the only two K-State sweatshirts I've ever seen in person. Right after the matchup possibility made the paper. Coincidence?
@jhodges - my WAC/Mtn West dyslexia is coming back to haunt me. My bad and thanks for the correction. Indeed the $1M payout is a major stumbling block for us to compete in the arms race for non-conference name match-ups. However, daring to dream of creating a sell-out early season that can be used as a marketing tool to capture the new fans could be considered a great use of marketing dollars.
Sadly, I'm not even sure we'd draw 20k if we played Boise State at Soldier Field.
If playing a good, bowl-bound Wisconsin team can't produce a sellout, I seriously doubt playing a team that has virtually no alums here and isn't a BCS-conference name school would do so, no matter how highly-ranked they are.
i think playing a pac10 team wouldn't be bad either.
playing UCLA wouldn't be bad. they're a program that is rebuilding, and we would get some play in the huge LA sports market. also there's the SunBowl revenge angle.
If we were to actually play Boise State, the only way we could do it is a one-year deal, played in Boise. We could, theoretically, get a good alumni fan base to the game, but then you're looking at only having six home games next year, which is something JP is really trying to avoid.
Bobby Kennedy said "Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly."
Bring on the potato eaters.
I like what Catatonic said!
Hey Jim Phillips, if you are reading this (I hope you are), we should target this for our slate every year:
1 MAC team (NIU preferably)
1 "like minded" school (Stanford, Vandy, etc.)
1 other respectable football program (e.g. OK State, Arizona, BYU)
1 powerhouse (Florida, Bama, Texas, USC)
Yeah, I said the powerhouse teams too. I don't think we need to think small. The consensus is that we are a team struggling and they we will always have limitations. Why? We have a great young coach who wants to stay. We have passionate fans (while not in numbers, they are die hards). We should stop targeting small goals (bowl wins, 8-9 win seasons, occasional big 10 championship) and start targeting national championships. I think just by playing a great schedule we generate more fans and better recruiting options. I also think we can be competitive and win against anyone. Bring it on!
I don't believe there will be a step backward next year as far as number of wins. I see a number of All Big Ten, and possibly even All Americans, in Davie, Bryant, and Mabin on defense. Two starters back on the D line along with others who've played a lot - Watt Q. Williams, Mafuli, and DiNardo. Five linebackers back with starts; two DB's back if you count Peters. I believe the D will be as good as this years (maybe not as good as the last 4 games but certainly as strong as the first 8 games). Most of the O line returns along with a number of receivers who played a lot - Stuart, Fields, Brown, Ebert, Superbacks, etc. I was impressed at times with Persa, although since I believe Kafka should have been Big 10 player of the year I think QB will be a little weaker if Persa's the guy. Running backs- Concannon, Simmons, Fields, Mathews, and who new? I think the personality of this year's team was a little inconsistent compared to last year's team but they were in every game. I do believe the coaching staff has instilled an ethic of playing hard throughout the game (OK, there have been moments to the contrary this year but looking at the last 2 years it's generally true).
Play that game at Wrigley Field on October 16th (no, the Cubs won't be playing by then). Winter Classic type buzz, the convenient location would draw the Wrigleyville crowd....A monster game. However, I know the Cubs wouldn't agree because of the chance the Cubs would still be playing.
A suggestion that is more feasible: leave the two open dates (good for healing and adjustments during the season) and schedule Boise State (or a comparable opponent) at Wrigley after the last Big Ten game.
I would rather see this than playing Illinois (or another nearby team such as Wisconsin) at Wrigley. That would add to the opposition fans. Scheduling a good team from far away would draw Chicagoans who would likely root for NU (and perhaps get on the NU bandwagon for the future).
Get Purple Phanatic a job at the NU marketing department. In fact, have LTP and PP run it.
You ever notice that the majority of our non-conference opponents are Adidas teams. See Miami, OH, Eastern, New Hampshire, Towson and Northeastern, which just dropped football due to budget.
LTP, check the correlation, but I think the shoe companies are behind scheduling more than the AD's. As further proof, check out ND non-traditional foes lately -- Nevada, SD St, Washington St. etc.
I suggest we play Notre Dame for our 12th game of 2010. We have an open date for October 16, 2010. Notre Dame is playing Western Michigan on that same date. However, Notre Dame has a few more open days in 2010, while Western Michigan and the MAC have yet to finalize their conference schedule. Northwestern versus Notre Dame may have been a bit of a one sided rivalry in its day, but I could think of nothing better than renewing it. We compete in academics, recruits, and attention in the Chicago media. Tons of Notre Dame fans in the Chicago area would guarantee a sell-out crowd at Ryan Field. So in summation, NU play ND on 10/16/10, Western Michigan play ND some other time in 2010, and NU could return the home game to ND in 2013.
@William:
The main reason that the ND-NU rivalry ended is because ND refuses to play at Ryan Field. They would rather have home games (or designated home games at neutral sites, like this year's game against Washington State in the Alamodome). It's because they can make a ton more cash from ticket revenue and their exclusive TV deal from home games than going on the road anywhere. They'll basically only consider away games against big time foes or ones where they can go to another region to drum up support (like the West Coast trip this week to Stanford).
Post a Comment